Alanreed, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS64 KAMA 181134
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to decrease in
coverage this morning. Most of the rain is still falling across
the central/eastern Texas Panhandle with more isolated to
scattered showers further south and west. Most of the rain this
morning should begin to dissipate or move into western Oklahoma by
mid morning. The ongoing forecast for today remains on track.
Muscha
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Widespread rain showers and isolated storms continue to move east
along and north of I-40 this morning. Observed rain rates with the
ongoing activity has been upwards of a quarter inch per hour, so
flooding concerns are minimal through the rest of the morning if
these rates continue. Scattered rain showers continue to develop
over eastern New Mexico and are moving east towards the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast rain chances have been updated
through the morning based on observations and latest hi-res
models.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected
Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
- Storms still possible over the weekend and into early next week,
  before a possible drying period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Lingering showers and storms tonight as we have about 500-1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE left over.  Environment is mainly elevated overnight with
low clouds lingering across much of the Panhandles.  Further south
there is some outflow that could trigger some new storms through the
night.  To the north, another shortwave push will bring more rounds
of showers and storms overnight to the OK Panhandle. These showers
may linger overnight into the mid morning hours.  As the atmosphere
stabilizes more further south, we`ll still have the overall boundary
holding in place along the I-40/HWY60 corridor.  The challenge will
be if we get enough heating tomorrow to trigger more
afternoon/evening storms along the boundary, or if we`re too worked
over and those morning showers linger too long for us to reheat back
up and destabilize enough to get storms.  Deterministic and CAMs are
at odds, with the CAMs being more bearish on the storms developing.
Current pops to reflect the more bearish scenario for Thursday.
Either way, with the front through and all the moisture from
yesterday and early today we`re looking at highs in the 70s for the
most part, with lower 80s in the southern Panhandle.
As we move into Friday the trough axis will start to move east into
Oklahoma and we`ll begin to get a ridge build over the Panhandles,
with mainly westerly flow to start. Overall, temperatures will
rebound back into the mid 80s, and with the ample moisture that
we`ve received as well as some increased moisture moving in from NM,
we could get some isolated to scattered showers Friday evening and
overnight.  The southwest Panhandles would be the most favored, but
will not rule out this just about anywhere.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Overall for the extended we will be in a transition period as the
ridge attempts to rebuild over the south central CONUS. This still
will not be without challenges as subtle waves in the west to
northwest flow continue to push across the Panhandles and could
trigger some afternoon showers and storms. As we move into mid next
week, it does appear that we`ll be looking at another weather system
that may track just north of our area, then dive down south over the
central OK area, and provide more of a backdoor cold front.  This
pattern also supports much lower probability of pops in the
extended.  Still, would not that at least Saturday and Sunday have
some level of storm chances, especially in the eastern Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Low clouds are possible at all sites with brief reductions down to
MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings through the remainder of the
morning. Rain showers may move over the sites for a few hours, but
visibility restrictions are not expected. Cloud cover will
generally clear out after 18z. Winds over the next 24 hours are
expected to be light around 10 kts or less.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion