Albertson, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

778
FXUS62 KMHX 091858
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
258 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north with a front stalled
offshore through mid week. A surface low developing along the
front tonight through tomorrow will bring rain chances along
the coast. High pressure builds in again for the end of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Cool and somewhat dreary conditions will
continue for the rest of the day as low pressure continues to
develop offshore along a stalled front. Showers have mostly
remained offshore so far today, but recently light returns have
shown up across NE NC, and expect scattered light precip to
continue here and as far west as the Inner Banks through this
evening. Temps have remained well below normal thanks to
widespread low/mid level clouds as well as a stiff NNE wind.
Tonight, the low off the Outer Banks will continue to develop
and drift northward. This will keep a canopy of low and mid
level clouds across Eastern NC, as well as scattered showers
(15-30% chance) along the NE NC coast and OBX. Temperatures
will hold steady along the OBX as onshore develops, while inland
temps will cool into the lower 60s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Stagnant weather conditions persist Wednesday
with a nearly stationary area of low pressure east of the
Carolinas. On the back side of this low, cool N/NE winds will
continue, as well as widespread cloud cover. Some scattered
light showers (15-25% chance) will be possible with some
enhanced convergence and low level moisture on the back side of
the low, mostly remaining north of the US 70 corridor. Highs
should reach the mid to perhaps upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Cooler, drier conditions this week
- Coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Wed along OBX
- Dry end to the work week as high pressure builds again
A second high builds in from the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night. There are some indications of a weak low forming along
the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this
coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted
trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if
any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track,
and intensity of the low should it form. This results in a
higher degree of uncertainty for the forecast this weekend
onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Deteriorating flying conditions are expected
this evening as ceilings lower amid increasing low level
moisture on the back side of a stalled front/low pressure
system. MVFR conditions have held steady this afternoon, and
expect cloud bases to soon lower from current levels of
2000-3000 ft. Along the OBX and Inner Banks IFR conditions have
developed this afternoon, and expect this area of IFR ceilings
to spread westward this evening. The most difficult question for
this forecast is how far west the IFR ceilings get, and there is
some doubt on how much IFR the SW coastal plain sites see,
including KOAJ. Elsewhere the forecast is more straightforward
with IFR conditions first reaching KEWN late this evening, and
then KPGV and KISO later tonight. Ceilings could drop to LIFR
levels in some locations, but confidence was not high enough to
include any ceilings less than 500 ft in the TAF. Little to no
improvement is expected after sunrise tomorrow, and it will
likely take until tomorrow afternoon for conditions to improve
to MVFR levels away from the immediate coast which could remain
at IFR levels for most of the day tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Lingering low ceilings are possible into
Wednesday night with a slow moving low off the NC coast.
Thereafter, generally VFR flight conditions expected through
the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tue...
Key Messages...
- Strong Small Craft conditions continue through tonight, with
  improving marine conditions tomorrow
Winds remain NNE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts early this
afternoon, with a stalled front offshore and low pressure
developing along it. It`s expected that winds should shift to
the NE and then E and weaken tonight across much of the waters
as the low drifts north. By early tomorrow morning winds should
become N to NNW at 10-20 kts, and increase slightly through the
day tomorrow. Seas are still 6-10 ft across the coastal waters,
but should soon decrease to 5-8 ft by early tonight. 4-7 ft
seas likely continue for most of tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Winds fall below 25kts Wednesday, but near Small Craft
  Advisory conditions continue through the remainder of the work
  week
- Another chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions late
  Friday into the weekend
Seas continue to abate as winds ease into Thursday with seas 3-5
ft. Trough strengthens offshore, maybe resulting in a weak low,
as we approach the weekend. This will result in gusty
north/northeasterly winds 25-30kt late Friday into the weekend.
Higher than normal level of uncertainty with the magnitude of
the winds at the end of the long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...The combination of persistent (but sub-
gale) northeast winds, and higher than normal astronomical tides
will continue to produce elevated waters levels through most of
the work week. Depending on wind and tide fluctuations, water
levels will likely be a few feet above normal, and as much as 1
to 2 feet AGL (above ground level). The highest water levels are
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound and adjacent tidal
rivers and creeks, as well as across Core and Bogue Sounds. In
this area, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to highlight
the potential for minor impacts. Higher water levels are also
expected oceanside, especially north of Cape Hatteras, and
should be limited to minor beach and dune erosion, but minor
ocean overwash can`t be ruled out given the still weakened state
of many dune structures across Dare County.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ080-
     094-194>196-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-135-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion