Alexander, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

989
FXUS61 KCAR 211732
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
132 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly exits to the south and east through
Monday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Monday night
and moves into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. High pressure
builds in from the north Wednesday, moves over the area
Wednesday night, then east of the area Thursday. Broad low
pressure will approach from the west Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Hipres building offshore this afternoon will allow return flow
to bring in higher dwpts and warmer temps. High clouds will
enter srn zones tonight, slowly spreading northward. Min temps
will be warmer than last night with most areas dropping into the
lwr 40s. However this depends on how quickly cirrus thickens up
and how well mixed it remains. Further north, cannot rule out
some patchy frost developing in colder valleys while patchy fog
develops over river valleys and lakes. Adjusted temps down
slightly acrs the north for tonight. Guidance is giving some
indications of low stratus moving onto the coast tonight but
confidence is too low to mention in fcst at this point but will
pass on to later shifts.
Low pressure currently located over northern Canada will drop
south tonight with warm advection continuing on Monday. Temps
should climb to above normal during the afternoon tomorrow ahead
of sfc front dropping south.
By Monday evening, showers should begin dropping into nwrn zones
as upr wv moves along front in sw flow aloft. Latest
probabilistic guidance suggesting 50-75% chance of areas in
northern Aroostook seeing > 0.10 inches of rain through 12z
Tuesday. As a result, have gone with categorical pops Monday
night acrs the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front and mid level shortwave trough will cross the area
on Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers to the north during the
morning, then Downeast during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures ahead of the front will warm into the 70s, while
northern areas remain in the 60s with more cloud cover and
showers. High pressure will build towards the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday, suppressing shower activity to the south Tuesday
night, with the north expected to remain dry on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be only slightly cooler behind the front, with
highs ranging from the mid 60s across the north to upper 60s
Downeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build overhead Wednesday night, providing
mostly clear skies and dry, cool conditions. Ensemble mean MSLP
from major ensemble systems favors high pressure overhead which
would optimize radiational cooling and could lead to frost
formation across northern zones still active in the frost/freeze
program. However, there is still some uncertainty in the
members, so the NBM forecast was kept for now. Future forecasts
may need to use the NBM 50 th or lower percentile and add frost
potential if ensembles continue to come into better agreement
on the high pressure center being directly overhead.
By Thursday a broad and slow moving upper level trough will
build over the Great Lakes with return SW flow setting up across
New England as the surface high pressure moves to the east.
Guidance has come into slightly better agreement in timing a
warm front lifting north either Thursday night or Friday,
leading to more cloud cover and potential for light rain,
showers, or drizzle. Uncertainty increases substantially heading
into the weekend. Ensemble mean upper level troughing across the
northeastern United States suggests a continued chance of
showers, which aligns with the NBM PoPs. Near average
temperatures are favored Thursday through Sunday with highs in
the 60s to around 70 and lows in the 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook terminals should remain VFR tonight into
Monday afternoon. However, PQI and HUL may see restrictions
drop in patchy fog toward daybreak.
Some uncertainty exists for BGR and BHB as to whether terminals
experience MVFR/IFR in low cigs late tonight. Confidence is too
low to include in 18z TAFs but may need to be included in later
forecasts.
After sunrise Monday, conditions should improve briefly to VFR
for northern terminals before diminishing to MVFR in showers,
possibly lower. VFR also expected at Downeast terminals though
cannot rule out MVFR or lower late in the period.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday: MVFR at northern terminals, VFR at southern terminals.
SSW-SW winds 10-15 kts at coastal terminals, otherwise light
winds.
Tuesday night: MVFR ceilings developing at southern terminals
and continuing at northern terminals. Periods of IFR also
likely, especially after midnight. Light N winds 5 kts or less.
Wednesday: MVFR possible in the morning, otherwise VFR. NE
winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR with light to calm winds
becoming SW around 5 to 10 kts. Patchy fog possible near inland
waterways which may impact PQI briefly around daybreak.
Thursday night to Friday: Increasing chances of MVFR or lower
with showers. SW winds 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels. SSW
winds 5-10kts through Monday will begin to increase late Monday
night. Seas range from 1 to 3 feet through Monday before
approaching 4ft over the outer waters late Monday night in serly
swell.
SHORT TERM: SE swell with a period around 11 to 13 seconds will
arrive on Tuesday, increasing waves over the coastal waters to 3
to 5 feet. The swell and associated waves will gradually
diminish through the remainder of the week. Winds will remain
well below advisory levels, generally around 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...Buster/MStrauser
Marine...Buster/MStrauser

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion