Alix, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS64 KTSA 101710
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Low (15-20%) shower and thunderstorm chances in northeast Oklahoma
   and far northwest Arkansas through early evening.
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures into early next
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Disturbance across KS and remnant MCV in northern OK will continue
to move east today as a mid-level ridge builds northward into the
High Plains. Lower levels remain dry ahead of the disturbance so any
convection that manages to redevelop this afternoon will be high
based. Will continue to carry thunder given steep mid-level lapse
rates present with the trough. Activity is expected to diminish this
evening as it moves into far northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, adjusted
lows down closer to short term consensus and MOS output as no
appreciable moisture recovery is expected with surface ridge in
place.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The ridge continues to amplify across the southern Plains through
the end of the week before a western U.S. trough begins to squeeze
the ridge axis eastward over the weekend. The combination the
expanding thermal ridge and increasing southerly flow will help
afternoon temperatures warm into the lower 90s on Thursday and
further into the middle 90s over the weekend. Increased moisture
will add to the building heat to help it feel even more
uncomfortable raising heat concerns for any weekend outdoor
activities.
Sunday into next week, heights recover on the back side of the
shortwave lifting into the upper Mississippi Valley keeping
southerly flow in place and any precipitation chances north of the
area. Some ensemble members do bring another system into the region
toward the middle of next week but overall consensus maintains a
warm and dry forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. A few
high based light showers may move across parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening, but any rain
should remain light. Winds will be out of the south and generally
light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  92  69  95 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   68  95  70  96 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   64  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   62  91  64  93 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   61  92  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   67  92  65  94 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   65  92  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   65  90  65  93 /  20  10   0   0
F10   63  92  68  94 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   64  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion