Alto, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS65 KABQ 242321 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- After much cooler temperatures today, readings will rebound
  closer to normal on Thursday.
- Forecast confidence remains moderate that a Pacific system will
  approach from the west at the end of the work week, bringing
  improved chances for showers and storms to western New Mexico
  Thursday and Friday. A large portion of central and eastern New
  Mexico may see increasing storm coverage Saturday and Sunday.
  This scenario would lead to an increasing risk for burn scar
  flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Yesterday`s CO low has moved off into the plains and is merging
with the base of a deep trough approaching the MS river valley. To
the west, the cut-off low is nearly stationary offshore of CA with
heights arching and rising into a ridge over the Great Basin. Much
drier mid to upper layer air has fed into NM within this regime
(PWATs reduced to 0.5 inch or lower in most western and central NM
zones), and this will limit storm potential this afternoon and
evening. A few high-based diurnal cumulus will continue to bubble
up, but other than a lone cell or two over the southwestern
mountains, no convection is anticipated.
Into Thursday, the ridge axis will slide over the central and
southern Rockies as the cut-off low moves inland over CA. Dry air
will remain over much of NM, but the nose of a subtropical
moisture plume will begin entering southwestern parts of the
state. PWATs over Catron and Socorro counties will rise to 0.75 to
1.0 inch Thursday afternoon, increasing the chances for storms
over the mountains as afternoon heating ensues. Temperatures will
bounce back to normal Thursday afternoon within the higher height
field of the ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The cut-off low over CA will change course on Friday, dipping
toward the southern border of the state and the northern part of
the Baja peninsula, while the ridge flattens some ahead of it.
This will start to introduce some diffluent flow to the Sonoran
desert and portions of southwestern NM while subtropical moisture
advection continues over at least the southern half of the state.
The low will then very sluggishly creep up the lower CO river
between CA-AZ on Saturday with PWATs climbing to 0.75 to 1.25
inch range over a larger majority of NM. The low is then projected
to fill in a bit as it lifts and stretches horizontally
northeastward into Sunday, and this would carry the deeper plume
of moisture over eastern NM and west TX. Deterministic forecast
models remain in remarkable agreement with the strength,
orientation, and track of the low through Saturday. There are more
apparent deviations into Sunday with the ECMWF lagging farther
west with the remnants of the low in AZ, which would ultimately
keep the deeper moisture more directly over NM and perhaps
increase the duration of opportunity for moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall. However, it should be noted that the GEFS mean
keeps the low/trough farther west and closer to what the
operational ECMWF and EPS mean are showing. This will certainly
lead to a period of increased rain chances, especially for western
and central NM, between Friday and Sunday. Conceptually, this
would place likely (60-80%) POPs over much of the west central to
southwestern zones Friday, with numerous storms expanding to the
south central and central mountains on Saturday. The best chances
would then align north-south along the central mountain chain on
Sunday with the potential for drier air reducing chances in far
western zones along the AZ border. For now, the primary concern
for excessive rainfall is over Ruidoso and nearby burn scars
Saturday into Sunday with secondary concerns for the HPCC scar
Sunday. The risk for isolated flash flooding off of burn scars
will also rise Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday in remaining
western and central zones, and if confidence in the low track
grows, expect more urgency in the messaging for these flooding
concerns this weekend.
Into Monday, drier air will filter more into western NM with
isolated to scattered storms there and more-so over the central
mountain chain where moisture will be struggling to hold on. A
brief period of ridging will then follow on Tuesday with drier air
limiting storms even more. A long wave trough will move toward the
west coast Tuesday and potentially inland into Wednesday.
Conditions look to remain mostly dry and seasonable during this
time. Afterwards NM weather will be dependent on the track and
orientation of this upstream western ConUS trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions prevail around central and northern New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Isolated storms in the southwest mountains will dissipate this
evening, giving way to a clear night with light winds. Showers
and storms will increase in coverage from the southwest after 18Z
tomorrow, but convection should generally remain confined to the
western third of the state.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Drier, more stable air will limit wetting rainfall potential this
afternoon through the evening with only a stray storm or two
expected over the southwestern mountains. Humidity has been
dropping quickly in northwest NM this afternoon, and one more day
of low humidity (15-20%) will be observed again in this area
on Thursday. Storms will increase over the southwestern mountains
on Thursday, but wetting rainfall potential will stay fairly low.
Remaining areas will stay dry Thursday with seasonable
temperatures area-wide. For Friday and the weekend a pattern shift
is still upcoming with increased humidity, clouds, and storms as
a cut-off low moves across southern CA toward the Four Corners.
Storms will increase and expand each day with Saturday, Saturday
night, and Sunday likely seeing the most activity, particularly
over western and central NM zones. Cooler temperatures will also
accompany. Storms will reduce on Monday, but the elevated
humidity and cooler temperatures will linger before rebounding
into Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  80  52  79 /   0   0  10  20
Dulce...........................  35  78  37  76 /   0   0   5  20
Cuba............................  41  75  47  75 /   0   0  10  40
Gallup..........................  40  81  48  74 /   0  10  30  60
El Morro........................  44  78  49  73 /   0  20  30  80
Grants..........................  42  81  48  76 /   0  10  20  70
Quemado.........................  46  79  49  75 /   0  30  40  80
Magdalena.......................  50  77  54  74 /   0  30  20  80
Datil...........................  45  76  49  71 /   5  40  30  80
Reserve.........................  48  83  49  79 /  10  60  50  80
Glenwood........................  54  87  54  82 /  10  60  50  80
Chama...........................  37  73  40  72 /   0   0   5  30
Los Alamos......................  47  73  51  74 /   0   5   5  30
Pecos...........................  43  75  47  76 /   0   0   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  41  73  45  74 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  33  65  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  27  69  30  70 /   0   0   0  20
Taos............................  38  76  41  77 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  38  73  42  73 /   0   0   0  20
Espanola........................  44  80  46  81 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Fe........................  47  75  51  76 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  44  78  48  79 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  81  59  81 /   0   0   5  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  83  56  82 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  85  55  84 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  83  56  83 /   0   0   5  30
Belen...........................  48  84  53  84 /   0   0   5  40
Bernalillo......................  49  84  54  84 /   0   0   5  30
Bosque Farms....................  46  83  52  84 /   0   0   5  40
Corrales........................  49  85  55  84 /   0   0   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  49  83  54  84 /   0   0   5  40
Placitas........................  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   5  30
Rio Rancho......................  50  83  56  83 /   0   0   5  20
Socorro.........................  53  86  57  84 /   0  10  10  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  76  51  76 /   0   0   5  40
Tijeras.........................  47  77  52  77 /   0   0   5  40
Edgewood........................  41  78  46  78 /   0   0   5  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  80  43  79 /   0   0   5  30
Clines Corners..................  43  74  49  74 /   0   0   0  30
Mountainair.....................  44  78  49  76 /   0   0   5  50
Gran Quivira....................  44  77  49  76 /   0   5   5  50
Carrizozo.......................  51  78  56  79 /   0  10   5  50
Ruidoso.........................  46  72  51  72 /   0  10  10  60
Capulin.........................  39  73  44  76 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  39  77  43  79 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  39  78  43  81 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  41  75  45  76 /   0   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  46  78  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  44  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  49  83  51  86 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  46  81  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  46  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  51  82  56  87 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  50  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  49  81  54  85 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  53  83  58  88 /   0   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  48  80  53  82 /   0  10   5  40
Elk.............................  46  79  51  79 /   0  20  10  50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion