128 FXUS64 KSJT 151126 AFDSJTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly north of I-20.
- Low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms Wednesday night into the weekend.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The upper-level ridge that brought some rain showers to west central Texas for the past few days has lifted up to the north tonight. The main axis of this trough will be located over western Oklahoma today. As a result, rain chances will be confined to the Big Country this afternoon where the best instability will be. Any showers or storms should be very scattered in nature and should diminish just after sunset. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to be in the low 90s area-wide today with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
No significant changes from the previous forecast. We currently have an omega block pattern across much of the eastern half of the CONUS, with stubborn ridging over the Great Lakes region, and upper lows either side, with one over the northern plains, and the other off the FL/GA coast. The ridging will slowly break down this week as the western trough makes its way through the central plains during the middle to second half of the week. As the trough moves through, we will see low chances (20%-30%) for precipitation mainly from Wednesday night into Friday, although we may see some lingering chances into the weekend. Confidence is low in these rain chances later this week, and especially next weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s, and lows mainly in the mid and upper 60s.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. South to southeast winds look to increase to around 10KT this afternoon with a few gusts to 15. There is a low (
NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion