Anthony, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

603
FXUS64 KEPZ 110408
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1008 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1005 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the end
of the week, gradually cooling to near normal by the first part of
next week.
- Thursday will be mostly dry for the central and eastern portions
of the Borderland, but with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Bootheel and Gila region of our western
areas.
- Beginning Friday, and lasting through the weekend, moisture moves
in from the west and spreads over the whole region. We expect in
increase in shower and storm coverage, with scattered mountain and
isolated to scattered lowland thunderstorms and showers each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
We start the forecast cycle with high pressure centered over the Big
Bend of W TX to our E, and a large and deep upper low over the Great
Basin to our W. The flow pattern, CCW around the base of the trough,
and CW around the back side of the high, is creating a narrow
channel of focused moisture on southerly flow into E AZ and W NM.
For today we has a more general smear of moderate moisture across
the entire CWA, which allowed scattered storms over the SACs, and
isolated storms elsewhere across all zones. For tomorrow, it appears
the high pressure to our E will shove the better moisture west, and
thus keep chances for Thursday showers and storms over our far
western zones (Bootheel and Gila). It will be another warm day, with
afternoon temps at least 5 degrees above normal. Skies will start
mostly clear, with much of the region seeing fair weather cu
development, while our western zones see full development to showers.
Friday looks to be a near repeat of what we expect tomorrow, as the
pattern changes little, with the exception of the rain/storm chances
expanding a bit east toward a Deming to TorC line. This is because
beginning Friday, we see the ridge to our east retreat a bit more
east, as the trough to our west begins to nudge eastward.
For Saturday, the trough picks up some steam, and begins to march
east toward the Rockies. This will sweep the moisture channel with
it, and recenter the deeper moisture directly over our region. Thus
we expect to see more clouds, a small decrease in temperatures, and
better chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms across
all forecast zones.
Sunday looks like a "betweener" day, as the moisture gets
temporarily flushed out to our east, on moderate west flow aloft, as
the first wave of energy passes across the Rockies, and moves out
into the Plains. Both the GFS and the ECMWF models indicate a deep
sweep out of moisture, and a dry day. The LREF ensembles lean that
way, with the GFS leading the dry solution.
Monday onward is in question because models go in very different
directions, which give us little confidence in the forecast. The
GFS, although backing off on a VERY wet solution, still tries to
reestablish a moisture plume over the region, for another round of
showers/storms on Monday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, builds a dry
high over the region, with virtually no chance of any precipitation.
However, even some of the members of the ECMWF ensemble still have
pcpn for this period, and beyond, so they are super set on dry. For
now we will hedge a bit since it is day 5 in the forecast, and sure
to get clearer in the next few model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions to dominate through the TAF period at all TAF sites.
Skies will continue to clear through the night...with areas of FEW-
SCT110, with some passing high clouds. Mostly SKC skies aft 08-10Z
through 18-20Z, with FEW-SCT110 again developing across the
region. AFT 20Z...ISOL TSRA will develop, mainly over SW and far W
New Mexico, over the Bootheel and Gila. Not anticipating any
storms over the terminals tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be
generally light overnight and through the morning AOB 10KT. AFT
18Z some gusts of 15- 20ks on SW to S winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Fire weather concerns are low fire danger. Mostly dry weather
over the lowlands through Thursday, with isolated showers and
storms over the Sacs/Gila Mtns and west of the Divide as high
moisture slowly moves in from the south and west. Storms will
occur area wide Friday through next Monday as Min RH values
gradually trend up through the end of the work week and into the
week. Temperatures will remain above average today and tomorrow
with a gradual decrease back to around average by the weekend.
Winds will remain light to low-end breezy each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  73  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               94  65  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               94  67  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               71  49  71  48 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    93  66  91  65 /  10   0   0  10
Silver City              88  61  86  61 /  20  10  20  20
Deming                   97  65  95  66 /  10  10   0  10
Lordsburg                94  66  92  66 /  20  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro       96  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                95  63  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   97  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             94  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           95  68  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            94  66  91  64 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    97  66  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 97  67  94  67 /  10   0   0  10
Orogrande                93  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  53  81  52 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                83  55  82  53 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                 81  52  78  51 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  85  55  83  54 /  10  10  10  10
Hillsboro                93  62  91  61 /  10  10   0  10
Spaceport                93  64  91  63 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             88  56  86  56 /  20  10  20  20
Hurley                   90  61  89  61 /  20  10  20  20
Cliff                    94  64  92  64 /  20  10  20  20
Mule Creek               90  60  88  60 /  20  20  20  20
Faywood                  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   94  65  92  66 /  20  10  20  20
Hachita                  96  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  20
Antelope Wells           94  64  91  64 /  20  10  20  20
Cloverdale               88  62  86  61 /  30  10  20  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion