Apple Valley, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS65 KSLC 111012
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
412 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A slow moving upper level system will continue to
bring breezy conditions to portions of southern and eastern Utah
with a few isolated strong thunderstorms across portions of
eastern Utah this afternoon and evening. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue during the afternoon and evening
across northern and eastern Utah Friday into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The slow moving upper level low continues to be the
main story over the next few days...with impacts ranging from
gusty winds across eastern and southern to the threat of a few
strong thunderstorms across eastern Utah this afternoon and
evening. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates
the low is now centered somewhere near Reno, NV. Multiple
shortwave troughs are noted rotating around the parent
circulation. Upper level diffluence remains across portions of the
Interior West.
By this afternoon, the combination of continued upper diffluence,
steep lapse rates, strong deep layer shear, and generally clear
skies will create an environment supportive of isolated strong
thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of eastern Utah in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, primarily for wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Expect thunderstorms to form after 1-2 PM and shift away from the
CWA by 5-6 PM. Notably, multiple CAMS suggest convection will
remain largely in the Grand Junction CWA.
A few thunderstorms will also be possible in northwestern Box
Elder County, with the attendant threat of strong, gusty winds.
With 700mb winds around 30-35kts, expect another breezy day across
southern and eastern portions of Utah. Looking at the latest
guidance, there is only a 15-25% chance of winds meeting wind
advisory criteria, with the highest chance in the Castle
County/Swell area. Thus, will not issue any wind headlines on this
shift. Similarly, expect locally critical fire weather conditions
across southern Utah.
The upper level trough will progress a bit further east Friday,
with an area of enhanced lift for precipitation cross portions of
northern and eastern Utah. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop in this area during the afternoon and gradually diminish
during the evening. Rinse and repeat for Saturday as the trough
axis passes overhead.
By Sunday, a shortwave ridge will build into the region, bringing
a drying and warming trend. Guidance has shifted markedly toward a
solution bringing an upper level low through the northern
Intermountain Region, rather than potentially as far south as the
Great Basin. One of the biggest variations in the ensemble members
is whether the upper level trough is progressive through the
northern Intermountain Region (around 50% of members) or whether
an upper level low persists north of Utah for several days (around
50% of members). Something to monitor moving forward.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC
terminal through the period. Dry conditions with a few mid level
clouds will continue with strong southerly winds developing during
the day.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace. Mostly dry conditions with a few mid
level clouds will continue with southerly winds increasing
throughout the day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The slow moving upper level low will continue
to impact the area through Saturday. Expect another dry and
breezy day across southern Utah, while the threat of isolated
strong thunderstorms is expected across eastern Utah this
afternoon and evening. As the upper level low crosses the Great
Basin, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
persist across the eastern half of Utah through Saturday. A drier
and warmer airmass will build into the state Sunday.
A portion of the models brings through a mostly dry cold front
Tuesday into Wednesday, which would usher in cooler temperatures
once again.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Kruse/Mahan
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion