Ash Fork, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

517
FXUS65 KFGZ 081646
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
946 AM MST Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected for the start of
the week. Fall-like weather is expected to set in midweek with
breezy and cooler weather and a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest today
will move into the Great Basin by midweek. The flow ahead of the
gradually deepening trough will be more westerly in the mid levels
allowing for a slight warming to occur for today and Tuesday.
Conditions will also dry out considerably with very little lingering
moisture across the region. Some low-level moisture may still be
present across the White Mountains where a stray shower or
thunderstorm is possible through this afternoon but by Tuesday the
dry air wins out and no precipitation is expected.
The trough digs down into the region, bringing increasing winds and
cooler weather. This fall-like weather will hang around through the
end of the week so be prepared for those cooler nights. The pressure
gradient will tighten up through midweek which will translate into
southwest winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph for
Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions look to be mostly dry and the
model guidance and ensembles continue to lean that way over the past
several runs. Any moisture that does find its way back into the
region looks to be mainly across eastern AZ with only isolated
showers or storms. The trough looks to cross the region towards the
end of the week once again turning the flow more to the west and we
will see some warmer and drier air start to push back in over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 08/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible in vicinity of KJTC before 03Z. Winds W/SW
5-10 kts, becoming VRB after 02Z.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/18Z through Thursday 11/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible in vicinity of KJTC and 0V7/E91 Wednesday.
Daytime winds S/SW 10-15 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 15-20 kts on
Wednesday. Overnight winds will likely remain elevated downwind of
the higher terrain Tuesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Mostly dry and warmer. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm possible over the White Mountains.
Southwest winds around 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph today, increasing
to 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH values 15-30%
each day.
Wednesday through Friday...Slight increase in moisture with isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of a Page to Payson line.
South to southwest winds around 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday, decreasing to 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph on
Friday. Minimum RH values around 15-35% through Thursday, dropping
to 10-30% on Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion