Ashby, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS63 KLBF 251914
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
214 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Approaching elevated fire weather conditions across the
  northwest Sandhills Friday afternoon.
- Southerly winds will range from breezy to windy Sunday through
  Wednesday. Monday looks to be the windiest day with gusts to
  30 mph possible.
- Highs Sunday through next Thursday are forecast to be as much
  as 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to
  mid 80s, with mainly dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
An upper ridge axis will reside over the region tonight. With
clear skies and winds light at around 5 mph or less, went below
NBM for lows and nudged toward the MET and MAV guidance. Lows
this morning reached the upper 30s to low 40s across some the
the western areas. Lows tonight from the mid 40s west and
southwest to low 50s northeast.
Friday, a shortwave upper trough will move into the Northern
Plains. This will drive a cold front into western South Dakota
by afternoon. Warming will occur ahead of the front with highs
reaching the mid 80s. Went above NBM for highs, again nudging
toward the MET and MAV guidance. Afternoon humidity will fall to
as low as 20 percent across the northwest Sandhills with winds
turning to the west at 10 to 15 mph early afternoon, then
northwest by late afternoon as the cold front arrives. Winds
will gust to 20 mph ahead of and as the cold front passes.
Elevated fire weather conditions may be reached, though critical
conditions are not expected. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
After the cold frontal passage Friday night, highs Saturday will
be cooler and near normal, with highs forecast slightly cooler
from 73 to 77 across the area. Soundings suggest that skies will
remain mostly clear.
An upper trough west of the Four Corners Saturday night will
lift over the Central and Southern Rockies on Sunday. This will
bring a return of southerly winds, with winds on Sunday becoming
breezy at 15 to 25 mph, along with higher dewpoints in the
mid to upper 50s. The upper flow across the area will become
south southwesterly and bring an increase in cloudiness Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. No precipitation expected however.
The main upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
Monday afternoon into Monday night. The GFS generates some very
light QPFs Monday night, mainly in the west, while the ECMWF and
GEM are mainly dry. The latest NBM forecast remains dry during
this time. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
is forecast to move into Saskatchewan Canada by Thursday. This
will keep the region in southwesterly flow aloft and an upper
ridge influence. Southerly winds may gust up to 30 mph on
Monday, and to 25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. Fire weather
concerns should remain limited as afternoon humidity ranges from
35 to 45 percent.
Highs Sunday through next Thursday are forecast to be as much as
10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to mid
80s, with mainly dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Clear skies and VFR conditions will persist across western and
north central Nebraska the next 24 hours. A southwest wind up to
10KT this afternoon, then light south to southwest winds
tonight. Winds will increase by 16Z Friday, with winds near
19012G19KT at KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion