Asher, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

244
FXUS64 KOUN 170541
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected today in
   northern and western Oklahoma, with chances moving southward
   tomorrow and Friday.
- Temperatures will cool down briefly late this week and again
   early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Point: Storms are likely along and north of an outflow boundary
across northwest Oklahoma this afternoon.
Meteorological Discussion: Current radar/satellite analysis shows an
upper low in the central Rockies with storms intensifying on the
High Plains in advance of it. A small cluster of storms is located
in central Kansas with an outflow boundary advanced southward toward
it. Modest overall instability (MUCAPE near 1,000 J/kg) means we can
expect that cluster to linger into the early morning hours and
potentially enhance the outflow boundary`s motion.
This boundary will be the focusing mechanism for renewed storm
development across northern and western Oklahoma this afternoon. The
postfrontal regime will be cooler but also more humid, which
combined with cooler temperatures aloft will allow for ample surface-
based instability (1,000-2,000 J/kg MLCAPE). Weak deep-layer shear
parallel to the outflow boundary will support a clustering storm
mode, so rain chances near the boundary will actually be fairly high
(40-60 percent). Widespread severe weather isn`t anticipated, but
with some dryness in the boundary layer we will have the potential
for 60 mph downbursts with the strongest updrafts. Elsewhere,
temperatures will again be somewhat above normal with isolated
shower/storm development.
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Points: Rather widespread storm chances continue on Thursday
with a cooldown into Friday.
Meteorological Discussion: Showers and storms are likely to linger
across much of tonight with the upper-level trough ejecting into the
central Plains. This will encourage a slow southward progression of
the composite cold front/outflow boundary. Most CAM guidance depicts
it reaching I-40 on Thursday morning and setting up in southern
Oklahoma around the time that temperatures warm up enough for
surface-based convection initiation in the afternoon. Once again,
thermodynamic and kinematic profiles aren`t overwhelmingly
impressive for any one hazard, but the law of large numbers applies -
 given enough storms, it`s probable that a few of them are strong to
severe, and local flooding issues are possible too.
The boundary will continue southward throughout the day on Friday,
and might well move south of the CWA entirely. However, with the
upper-level low moving into the lower Missouri valley, there will be
northwest flow and cooler temperatures aloft, so another round of
storms is expected particularly across the southern and eastern
parts of the CWA. Temperatures will also cool off closer to normal
in response to this northwest flow.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Points: Daily rain chances continue into early next week, when
another cooldown is likely to occur.
Meteorological Discussion: Although the initial trough across the
Plains is expected to lift out of the reach of our area, full
ridging is not likely to return. This is because the subtropical
ridge will redevelop further west across the northern Mexican
highlands, leaving us in a northwest flow zone on its northeast
periphery. Because of that, at least low (20-40) percent chances of
rain are expected on both days this weekend, especially along and
southeast of I-44. Temperatures are likely to warm up some and
settle back in above normal.
A pattern flip is likely beginning on Monday as one of the first
true fall troughs of the year translates eastward across the
northern Plains. Though most of the troughing will miss us to the
north, global guidance shows a cutoff low developing at its base.
That will help cool off our temperatures on Monday and Tuesday and
bring in more rain chances. We might finally begin to dry out on
Wednesday as the cutoff low starts to wander east.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected outside of any showers/thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow, especially
across northern into west central Oklahoma (KWWR, KPNC, and KCSM).
PROB30s were included at these terminals to account for this.
Elsewhere, coverage of showers/storms is expected to be too low to
include in the TAFs at this time. Gusty winds and brief
reductions in visibility are possible with the most intense
storms.
Outside of showers/storms winds will generally remain south to
southeast through the period.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  68  87  65 /  20  20  50  50
Hobart OK         93  66  90  63 /  30  20  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  91  68 /   0   0  20  40
Gage OK           82  60  80  58 /  60  50  60  30
Ponca City OK     91  65  85  63 /  30  30  50  70
Durant OK         94  69  93  68 /   0  10  20  50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion