Ashland, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS65 KBYZ 160708
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
108 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High precipitation chances continue today central and west,
  with 40 to 90 percent chances for 0.5 inch plus of precipitation
  for areas west of Billings.
- The best precipitation chances shift east of Billings Wednesday,
  with 40 to 80 percent chance for rainfall of 0.25 inches or more
  south of a Baker to Fort Smith line.
- Light snow accumulations expected over the Beartooth Mountains
  above 10kft tonight through Wednesday morning. This snowfall may
  impact travel over the highest elevations of the Beartooth
  Highway.
- Becoming drier with seasonal temperatures for the end of the
  work week, with above normal temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...
Forecast area will be under an upper level trof for the next 36
hours or so. This will keep temperatures cool and bring periods of
rainfall to most of the area. The main change with the forecast
this evening is models trending heavier with precipitation through
this evening for areas west of Billings. Latest HREF is showing
24hr LPMM QPF band of 1 to 3 inches from near Livingston to Big
Timber to Ryegate. As mentioned in previous discussions, the
upper level pattern downstream of Montana is blocked by a High
over Low block over the east coast into the eastern Great Lakes.
In slowing the progression of the system over our area we are
seeing stronger dynamics over the foothills linger well into the
day today and into this evening producing the stronger
precipitation amounts. At the same time, precipitation has become
more sporadic over the eastern half of the forecast area tonight,
though there are still pockets of half to one inch amounts showing
up. With precipitation being more sustained over western and
central areas today, temperatures will hold mainly in the 60s
there, while easterly areas will see a bit more sun and push into
the low to mid 70s.
The slower progression will keep precipitation chances in place
during the day Wednesday for areas from Billings eastward. Expect
high temperatures Wednesday to be in the lower 70s.
Upper low shifts just far enough east on Thursday for a mainly dry
forecast across the area. This mainly dry forecast looks to hold
for the most part through the weekend ahead and into early next
week as weak ridging to a zonal flow patten develop over the area.
A weak disturbance could bring an isolated shower/thunderstorm
threat to mainly mountain locations Sunday afternoon/evening, but
this activity looks pretty marginal at this point. High temperatures
look to hold near seasonal levels in the 70s Friday, warming to
above seasonal levels in the 80s for the weekend. 70s return for
Monday.
Snow in the mountains through Wednesday...Temperatures in the
high country are now in the 30s above 9000 feet. With the model
trending wetter in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains may see an
increase in expected snow totals going forward. Overall the going
Winter Weather Advisory for travel over the Beartooth Highway
looks good. May tweak snow totals just a bit higher with the next
issuance. Chambers
&&
.AVIATION...
Periods of rainfall will continue through today. At this time,
the heaviest precipitation looks to occur west of KBIL around KLVM
and K6S0. This is also where the best chance of seeing MVFR
conditions exists this morning (moderate to high chance). Around
and east of KBIL, precipitation will be more isolated to
scattered. Expect mountain obscurations to occur at times through
the day today, especially over the Absaroka-Beartooths. Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 052/072 051/076 049/078 052/084 055/080 051/078
    7/T 52/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    10/U
LVM 063 041/070 041/076 043/079 047/080 047/074 045/075
    9/T 31/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    10/U
HDN 071 049/073 047/076 046/079 047/085 052/081 048/078
    6/T 53/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    20/U
MLS 075 052/074 050/074 048/074 048/082 054/080 051/075
    4/T 32/W    11/U    10/U    00/U    00/B    10/U
4BQ 070 052/069 050/069 046/073 048/080 053/078 051/074
    3/W 44/T    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
BHK 075 050/073 047/069 045/071 045/079 049/079 049/074
    3/T 62/T    12/W    21/B    00/U    00/B    10/U
SHR 067 043/067 042/071 042/075 045/081 049/078 046/075
    6/T 56/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight
      FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion