Ashland, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

479
FXUS66 KMFR 291010
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
310 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.DISCUSSION...Radar is showing precipitation over the marine
waters with some light returns in portions of Douglas County. A
front will reach the coast early this morning, then move onshore
west of the Cascades during the morning. Precipitation will also
move inland with most of the rainfall likely to be along the
coast, coastal mountains and Cascades. Ahead of the front moderate
to strong south winds are likely in the Shasta Valley and a wind
advisory remain in affect. Winds in the Shasta Valley will shift
to the west and diminish later this afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate
to strong winds are expected for portions of the eastside and a
wind advisory remains in effect. Please see NPWMFR for more
details.
East of the Cascades, it will be windy with precipitation
increasing later in the afternoon, with most centered in Modoc
and Lake County, even then rainfall amounts will be lighter
compared to the Cascades west.
A very brief break between systems tonight into Tuesday morning
will be followed by the second front later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Compared to the first front, the model trend has been for a
more dramatic weakening of this front as it moves inland. Still
enough for gusty southerly winds along the coast, and Shasta
Valley.
Showers are expected on Wednesday as the trough shifts inland,
with activity mainly from the coast to the Cascades. When all is
said and done, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected during the first
half of the week for the coast, a quarter of an inch to an inch
elsewhere on the west side, and up to a quarter of an inch on the
east side.
Clouds and cool temperatures persist on Thursday as the upper
trough remains over the region, but additional showers will be
light and few.
Dry weather and a modest warming trend is likely to follow with
weak ridging on Friday, a weak shortwave trough on Saturday, then
the beginning of a rex block pattern early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore,
ceilings will lower to MVFR with occasional IFR. Ceilings are
expected to improve later in the day, but they are expected to
remain MVFR. Also, moderate to strong winds will continue through
14z, then diminish as the front moves onshore.
Inland, west of the Cascades, ceilings will lower as the front moves
inland this morning with MVFR ceilings north of the Umpqua Divide,
including Roseburg. The Medford terminal should remain VFR, however
the higher terrain will be partly obscured between 15-21z.
East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period, but the higher terrain could be partly obscured in showers n
the afternoon. Moderate to strong winds are likely at Klamath Falls
this afternoon with peak gusts close to 35 kts. -Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, September 29, 2025...Very steep
and hazardous seas with gale gusts will continue into early this
morning, then both winds and seas will diminish towards mid morning
as the front moves onshore.
After a brief break, south winds will increase again as the next
front approaches the waters overnight tonight.
A Gale Watch remains in effect Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening,
and will likely be upgraded to a warning later this morning or this
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tuesday night, with moderate
southwest winds to continue through Wednesday. -Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ024-030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ350-356.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion