Austin, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

470
FXUS63 KICT 142029
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
329 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening,
  mainly along and west of the Flint Hills. An isolated severe
  storm or two possible late this afternoon and evening west of
  I-135.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues Wednesday through the
  weekend, with additional off-and-on rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms.
- Near to above average temperatures through Tuesday, turning
  near to below average Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Upper-level troughing is overhead today and will remain so through
Monday. The initial band of showers with occasional lightning
strikes is expected to remain across central and south central
Kansas but slowly inch eastward as we go through the evening hours.
West of this initial line of showers, skies have cleared and
temperatures have quickly rebounded back into the low to mid 80s
ahead of a weak cold front. This front combined with increasing
upper-level ascent should lead to additional shower and thunderstorm
development this evening and overnight with a few stronger
thunderstorms possible west of I-135. Modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates should lead to surface based CAPE values around 1500 J/kg with
around 50 kts of 0-6km shear. This should be sufficient for a few
organized updrafts to develop with hail up to the size of quarters
and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph. Latest guidance would suggest
the best zone to see this activity would be just west of our
forecast area. As storms shift to the east, instability will
diminish leading to quick end of any severe weather threat with just
showers and thunderstorms moving east overnight. PWAT values around
1.5" suggest the overall heavy rain threat is minimal especially
since storms should steadily move to the east; but a few lucky spots
may pick up a quick inch of rain.
Troughing will remain over the forecast area on Monday as well. The
low-level jet should weaken as we go through the morning hours but
just enough lift may remain to keep some showers around especially
across south central and southeast Kansas. The trough will shift
east Monday evening which will bring an end to any lingering
showers. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will remain near to
slight above average by mid September standards, in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The next upper-level system will approach the region
Tuesday evening and remain overhead through the weekend which will
kickoff a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern. High
temperatures will drop back into the mid 70s to lower 80s for
Wednesday through the weekend with periodic rain chances as well.
Currently the best chance to see area wide rainfall will be on
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Showers and storms possible west of the Flint Hills this
afternoon and evening, then VFR conditions to prevail during the
latter half of the TAF period.
A broken line of showers and storms continues to inch eastward
early this afternoon. At 1725Z, it was located along a KSLN,
KHUT, KEND line. It should crawl across the I-135 corridor
within the next few hours. Vis reductions from brief heavy
rainfall along with a few lightning strikes will be possible in
stronger storms.
Additional development is possible later this afternoon and
evening west of a KSLN-KHUT-KEND line, and these could produce
gusty winds and small hail. However, there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in coverage of this round of storms.
After 06Z, VFR conditions should prevail again and persist
through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion