Badger, California Weather Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS66 KHNX 141824
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1124 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend with a
warmup to above average next week. Triple digit chances return
Tuesday and Wednesday for the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave
Desert.
2. Smoke will continue to linger as the Garnet Fire continues
to burn but with improving conditions; the smoke will not be as
thick or widespread.
3. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next week as
moisture tracks over the region from the south.
4. There is a Marginal Risk (5 to 15 percent) for Excessive
Rainfall leading to flash flooding on Thursday for Kern County
and the southern Sierra Nevada.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Zonal-type flow today will continue to result in near-average
temperatures across central California before a high pressure
ridge gradually builds in from the southeast over the next few
days. As is typical with high pressure, a warming trend is
expected to occur, with a peak on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the
San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert, there is a 70 to 90
percent chance for afternoon highs to exceed 95 degrees both
days, but less than a 30 percent chance to exceed 100 for areas
including western Kings County, and near Arvin, south
Bakersfield and Ridgecrest.
Over the next few days, what is currently tropical storm Mario
is anticipated to track to the northwest, but will weaken into
the middle part of the week. While the strength of the system is
likely to decrease, the moisture around the system will stick
around, eventually being picked up by a secondary low pressure
system located off the California coast. The cyclonic flow
around the low will cause this moisture to move northward into
central California, possibly as early as Wednesday, but more
likely Thursday into Friday. The influx of moisture moving over
the terrain and heat of central California is projected to cause
showers and thunderstorms to develop, particularly across the
Sierra Nevada and Kern Mountains, and the Mojave Desert.
However, the initial push of the moisture will bring slight
chances up to 10 percent for thunderstorms to track into the San
Joaquin Valley. As a result of this moisture, the Weather
Prediction Center has indicated a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall leading to flash flooding for the southern Sierra
Nevada and much of Kern County for this Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California Interior
for the next 24 hours. Areas of Dense Smoke aloft along the Sierra
Nevada over eastern Fresno County and nearby counties from the
Garnet Fire may impact visibility.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
public/aviation...McCoy
idss..............Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion