Baker, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

038
FXUS65 KBOI 072000
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
200 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A shortwave in
central Idaho, will provide just enough moisture and forcing for
storms to develop along our northern and eastern areas this
afternoon and evening. Storms will develop in Baker county, the
West-Central and Boise Mountains, and s-central Idaho in the
Magic Valley lasting until about sunset when they either weaken
or move northeast out of the area. Storms may produce outflows
up to 50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
As the shortwave moves out of the area tonight, dry southwest
flow aloft continues as a low-pressure system begins to move in
Monday night. The continuous southwest flow will bring patchy
smoke aloft, but less intense then late last week. Clearer skies
tonight with the dry flow and still moist surfaces could lead
to patchy valley fog formation in the mountains. Afternoon gusts
along the NV border also reach about 25 mph, with very dry RHs
at the same time and elevating fire risk. Increasing clouds
Tuesday as the low center moves closer and dry southwest flow
becomes moist. Temps drop to 5-10 degrees below normal Tuesday
as the colder airmass moves in. Precipitation chances increase
as early as Monday night, with the first real chance of
precipitation 30-40% Tuesday afternoon. While storms Tuesday
afternoon will be moving quickly, enough instability and
moisture will support heavy rain rates, and a marginal risk of
flash flooding due to excessive rainfall over burn scars in
Central ID.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Unsettled weather with
below normal temperatures expected through the period. An upper
level low is forecast to move east across the area Wednesday through
Friday followed by a shortwave ridge on Saturday. This will bring a
40-70 percent chance of precipitation Wed/Thu with slightly lower
probabilities on Fri. There will be enough instability for at least
a slight chance of thunderstorms each day. Models diverge over the
weekend on the progression of the shortwave ridge and the next
Pacific low/trough. With more uncertainty over the weekend the
precipitation probabilities trend down to 20-40 percent with the
best chance for rain across the north.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Showers and storms expected to form in Baker
County, central ID, and s-central ID. Potentially impacting the
KBKE, KMYL, KJER, and KTWF with outflow gusts up to 45 kt and
small hail. Storms move out and/or dissipate by Mon/02Z. Patchy
fog near KBKE and KMYL is possible tonight, and in mountain
valleys. Some haziness aloft due to smoke. Surface winds:
becoming SW-NW 5-15kt, and variable 5-10kt overnight. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20kt.
KBOI...VFR. Winds shifting to NW 5-10kt this afternoon, and back
to SE tonight.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....JM

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion