Baldwin, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

512
FXUS63 KTOP 252340
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy and shallow morning fog, otherwise dry and quiet
  weather is expected through the next week with temperatures
  slightly above average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Upper air pattern continues to trend towards an Omega block with the
central US under the influence of ridging over the Rockies, which
sets up quiet and warm weather in the central US through the next
week. Surface high pressure also dominates the area, and this should
result in a similar set up as this morning for patchy ground fog
tomorrow morning. Td depressions look to be only around 1-2 degrees
with clear skies and calm winds to provide good radiational cooling.
Forecast soundings show that any low-level moisture looks shallow,
and would expect this to be confined to low-lying areas and areas
near water, much like this morning.
The upper ridge keeps its hold on the region through this weekend.
While the blocking pattern does look to break down early next week,
any forcing from the trough upstream looks to remain to our west
through mid-week. A persistence forecast would do fairly well
through this forecast period with little change in air mass, keeping
high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 50s to around 60. A
small range in temperatures in the ensembles further indicates high
confidence in the forecast through the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions should dominate. The main concern is diurnal
ground fog potential. Crossover temperatures may be approached
with little boundary layer wind. Will go ahead with TEMPO MIFG
at TOP based on conditions from this morning but confidence is
low.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Poage

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion