Basalt, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS65 KPIH 141914
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
114 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Monday as a
  shortwave passes through Eastern Idaho.
- Below normal temperatures on Monday.
- Drying out for late Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A shortwave trough/low pressure system is pushing a weak ridge over
our area farther east today. This will allow for showers and storms
to begin moving into the Central Mountains this afternoon and
evening with activity moving eastward overnight and through Monday.
Main area of concern today will be in the Central Mountains where
RAP model soundings show decent surface and MU CAPE around 1000
J/Kg, 8.6degC/km 700-500mb lapse rates, and about 30kts of sfc-6km
shear around the Challis area. All in all, sufficient for a few
stronger storms as this system`s cold front passes through the area
as outlined in a Marginal Risk for severe weather from the SPC. The
latest HREF max wind gust also shows some potential for storms to
produce gusts around 50-55 mph. As for precipitation, the
latest 1-hr mean QPF shows generally a tenth of an inch or less
in an hour at any given point, though the 95th percentile shows
a very small chance for the strongest storms to produce around a
quarter to four tenths of an inch in an hour. Investigating
around the Wapiti fire burn scar area, the HREF shows only a 10
to 20 percent chance for greater than a quarter of an inch in an
hour through this evening. As such and after chatting with WFO
Boise, we will be holding off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch for
the burn scar. However, we will still be keeping an eye on it.
Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 70s for many and
we may even see a few low 80s in the valleys with breezy winds
at times gusting to around 25 to 30 mph outside of storm
activity. Winds will be very similar on Monday, but look for
cooler temperatures behind the cold front coming through today.
Monday morning will start off in the 40s for our valley
locations in the Snake River Plain. Highs will generally be in
the 60s for most with the NBM showing a 50 to 70 percent chance
of not reaching 70 degF in Pocatello and Idaho Falls.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
It looks like there is some potential of a few showers
and storms on the back side of the low, especially on Tuesday. If
and when that develops, it should remain in the higher elevations
east of I-15 based on current trends.  Behind that storm, high
pressure builds in through most of the upcoming week. By Friday and
next weekend, things get a bit iffy forecast-wise. The GFS show the
ridge briefly weakening, but rebuilding by next Monday, with limited
monsoon moisture over Idaho. The ECMWF shows a low moving through
Friday and Saturday, but opening the door for a period of strong
west to east (zonal) flow over the state. When looking at the
cluster forecasts, you can see a fairly even split between those two
notions or somewhere close to one of those ideas. Our Blend of
Models kinda fits either one as well, with a slight chance/low end
chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend. We
should high temperatures rebounding a bit, with plenty of 70s around
and more low 80s showing up in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR weather remains in place, although we should see or more
rounds of showers and storms. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts
over 30 kts with any storms that would impact a particular
airport, with highest potential reaching 40-50kts. We will
maintain VCSH or PROB30 for the latest round of TAFs, and will
need amend accordingly later on as/if needed.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A cold front will move through the area today and Monday as an area
of low pressure moves through central Idaho. This will bring
isolated to nearly scattered showers and storms to most of our fire
weather zones today, but especially in Zones 422, 475, and 476.
Storms will be working with enough energy to produce brief
downpours, gusts around 50 mph, and small hail. Activity will move
eastward overnight and through Monday as the low and associated cold
front move into parts of Montana and Wyoming. Winds will be a bit
breezy outside of storm activity today and tomorrow, too, with gusts
around 25 to 30 mph at times. Total QPF between now and Tuesday
morning looks to generally be between 0.05 to 0.15 inches for most
of our lower elevations and 0.20 to 0.30 in the mid and higher
elevations of the Central Mountains and 0.15 to 0.25 inches for the
mid and higher elevations of the Eastern Highlands. This cold front
will drop highs temperatures by almost 10 degrees, meaning many will
be in the 60s for highs on Monday. As this system departs on Tuesday
and high pressure begins to build back in over the area, look for
drier and warmer conditions to return for Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday. Some of the longer range models suggest another system
heading our way next weekend, but there is little consensus on that
at this point.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...AMM

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion