Battlement Mesa, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS65 KGJT 282149
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
349 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms continue into the evening. Small
  hail and bouts of heavy rain will be the primary threat of
  stronger storms.
- Showers and storms will favor the Divide mountains tomorrow
  with drier days to follow.
- Light snow can`t be ruled out for the highest elevations
  through Monday though little to no impacts are expected on
  mountain roadways.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Scattered showers and storms continue this evening with subtle
shortwave energy passing through the region. Despite some modest
upper-level forcing and PWATs 150-200% of normal, mixed layer
CAPE came in around 100 J/kg in the 18z KGJT sounding and storms
thus far have been behaving accordingly. Stronger storms will
be capable of producing small hail and heavy downpours. Isolated
showers may continue through the overnight hours, but will be
less numerous compared to what we saw last night. Above 10,000
feet, this precipitation may fall as light snow.
There is a stronger lobe of vorticity moving across Arizona
today. Much of this forcing will move through south of the local
area and then northeast along the Front Range tonight and
tomorrow, but a few stronger storms may develop along the
southern San Juans and adjacent valleys with the extra forcing
skirting by tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon
convection will mostly be confined to the Divide mountains with
isolated storms possible over other area mountain ranges.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
On Tuesday the shortwave brining us precipitation today will be
out over the Plains and no longer influencing our weather.
Although moisture does not get fully scoured out and models show
a shortwave moving in from the west. This is a quick moving
system and therefore do not expect a whole lot of precipitation.
The next system to watch will be over the PacNW late in the
week. The model solutions vary on how this low evolves once it
gets into our region on Friday or Saturday. As of now the precip
is favoring the northern CWA, but that could change.
Temperatures rebound mid week to back above normal until the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and
evening. They could result in IFR/MVFR conditions at times.
Conditions improve tonight for most, but high terrain could stay
socked in stratus overnight.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion