Beaumont, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

617
FXUS61 KAKQ 060732
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
332 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger cold front crosses the area late tonight into
Sunday, with scattered showers and storms possible. Cool high
pressure builds north of the area Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warm and slightly humid with highs in the low 90s
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  into tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe.
Sfc high pressure still lingers offshore and over the local area as
the next cold front set to impact the region approaches from the
west. As of latest analysis this front was located over West
Virginia, a convective line evident on radar along with it. Aloft, A
broad trough that stretches from Montana to New England has its axis
cutting through the upper Midwest and the Great Plains, which places
the local area under SW flow. The Mid-Atlantic will face one last
summer-like day (for the foreseeable future anyway) ahead of the
front. Highs will be in the low 90s for most and dewpoints remain in
the upper 60s/around 70.
Ahead of the cold front passage, expect cloud cover to gradually
increase from W to E through the day. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are expected to move into central VA,
Northern Neck, and Dorchester by mid to late afternoon. Guidance
suggests that precip may be slow to progress SE. SPC has maintained
the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of the area,
excluding SE VA, NE NC, and the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore.
The sfc front and UL trough will provide sufficient forcing and
MUCAPE values should climb to 1500-1800 J/KG based on the 00z HREF.
Effective shear does look like it may be on the lower side, but
should still see 25-30kt. Given these factors, stronger storms will
be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some
hail. Storms will be racing the sun, though, since instability
should drop off rather quickly after sunset. These storms will be
capable of heavy rain, as well. Most places should stay under 0.5"
of accumulation, but northern portions of the area could see upwards
of an inch. WPC has placed these areas in a Marginal risk of
Excessive Rainfall. Showers will persist overnight, albeit with less
coverage, and will slowly shift SE through Sunday morning. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Autumnal weather returns to the region on Sunday, with highs
  in the mid 70s and drier air moving back in.
The cold front should move offshore Sunday morning, a coastal trough
forming as it gets hung up. This feature may lead to the
continuation of scattered showers in the SE through the day Sunday.
Behind the front, strong high pressure builds into the area and
ushers in the return of fall weather. Sunday will likely be the
coolest day with lingering overcast skies and highs barely making it
out of the 60s for most of the area. Meanwhile, the far SE will be a
bit warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Skies gradually clear out
Sunday night from NW to SE. Lows in the NW will be in the low 50s
while the lows in the SE will be in the mid 60s thanks to the
persistent cloud cover. Drying out further on Monday as that coastal
trough slides E. However, cloud cover will remain near the coast.
Highs will be in the mid 70s. Lows Monday night range from the upper
40s in the far NW to the mid 60s in the far SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler weather sticks around early next week.
Heading into the mid-week period, high pressure slides by to the N
and into New England while the strengthening coastal trough
retrogrades back toward the coastline, setting up a CAD situation.
This means mostly cloudy to overcast skies, gusty onshore winds, and
chances for light rain in the east. Highs on Tues and Wed will be in
the mid 70s. Lows Tues night and Wed night will range from the mid
50s in the NW to the mid 60s at the coast. The coastal trough should
finally move away from the coast Thurs, leading to pleasant
conditions with highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. A dry cold front
then swoops in going into the end of the week. Forecast highs for
Friday are in the upper 70s/around 80.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...
VFR prevails across the TAF sites to start the 06z TAF period.
Later this morning, there is the potential for low stratus to
impact SE terminals, but confidence has decreased based on
recent model guidance. Otherwise, expecting a FEW-SCT higher
level cloud deck through the morning hours. An approaching cold
front will lead to thickening/lowering cloud cover this
afternoon. Also, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Confidence
in impacts to terminals is highest at RIC and SBY. Any impact
from precip to the SE terminals would likely be after 06z/07.
Storms at RIC/SBY will be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds.
Guidance suggests that CIGs drop to MVFR between 23-06z from NW
to SE. Southerly winds expected through the afternoon, then
becoming northerly behind the front this evening-overnight.
Outlook: Scattered showers and storms linger through Sat night,
tapering off from NW to SE Sun morning as a cold front moves
through the region. Winds shift to N behind the front Sat night
with MVFR/IFR CIGs developing along with patchy fog. MVFR/IFR
CIGs linger into Sun.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Winds are expected to reach Small Craft conditions across the bay
this afternoon.
- Low rip current risk for all beaches tomorrow.
- Additional Small Crafts will be needed Sunday as the cold front
finally pushes through.
Afternoon analysis shows a strong low pressure system over Canada
and a pressure off the east coast. The pressure gradient from these
two systems have tightens through the day causing winds to increase.
As of 3pm winds are between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts starting to
reach upwards of 20 kt. Seas this afternoon are between 2 to 3ft
across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. Later this afternoon
winds and seas will start to increase as the pressure gradient from
the low and high pressure tightens. Winds will increase out of the
S between 15 to 20 kt with some gusts nearing 25 kt. Small Craft
Advisories continue to remain in effect from this afternoon into late
tonight across the bay. There is the chance for a very brief period
of 25 kt gusts across the northern ocean zones again but given the
brief period halted off on any SCA. With the increase in winds seas
will also increase across all coastal waters. Seas will build to 2
to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. There is the
possibility of some 5ft seas across the northern zones. However,
unlike the previous night where winds were more out of the SE and
the longer duration of stronger winds, not expecting seas to rise
above 5 ft for a long duration if they can rise. Again did not issue
any SCA given such a short duration in wind and seas.
Winds are expected to lower by early Saturday morning as the
pressure gradient weakens. However, winds will still remain elevated
between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts nearing but staying just shy of
20 kt. With the winds lowering seas should also lower to 1 to 2 ft
across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean to possibly even 2 to
3 ft in the afternoon. Then by early Sunday a much stronger cold
front is expected to move over the area. A short duration surge is
expected as the front moves over, followed by a lull. Then by late
Sunday into early Monday additional drier and cooler air is expected
to advect over the waters helping create much stronger winds. SCAs
will likely be needed for much of the area at some point Sunday into
Monday. Again there will be another lull in the winds but just
reaming below SCA condition late Monday as a decently strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Looking ahead in the extended
NE winds are expected to prevail as strong high pressure centers
over New England, allowing for winds and seas to increase Tue-
Wed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
As the southerly winds prevail this will allow for Tidal
anomalies to increase reaching .5 feet above normal by tonight`s
high tide cycle. Some nuisance to minor flooding will be
possible late tonight/early Saturday, again mainly in the upper
Bay. The highest high tide looks to be tonight, with minor flood
thresholds possible at Bishops Head. Coastal Flood statements
have been issued for portions of the Northern Neck and of the
Eastern Shore on the bay side. &&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AC/MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion