Beech Bottom, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

155
FXUS61 KPBZ 271139
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
739 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances ramp back up south and east of Pittsburgh on
today with passing low pressure. Dry and unseasonable warm on
Sunday ahead of a more uncertain pattern headed into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Some morning fog north of Pittsburgh
- Low pressure returns rain chances south and east of Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------------------------
A deepening trough across the southeast CONUS will support the
development of weak low pressure across the Carolinas and slowly
steer it up the East Coast today. Rain chances locally ramp up
just after dawn today, across northern WV and spread north and
east through the day. Current consensus is that the highest rain
chances and heaviest amounts are to the east of Pittsburgh
coincident with best forcing from the low and upper jet support.
A sharp gradient in PWAT is likely to bisect the area with
lower amounts north and west and higher to the south and east.
Given the more southeast track the NBM probs changed a bit with
the prob for 0.50 inches today in northern WV was around 30% to
50%. There does stand to be a bit less than in previous runs due
to this. Dew points will be on the rise through the day and
temperatures are still likely to reach the 70s across the area
(some 80s possible in NW PA/eastern OH on the fringes of the
cloud shield), so it`ll feel a bit more sticky out there as
well.
Areas of fog are possible tonight, though where the rain falls
during the day, clouds are less likely to clear out, so lingering
surface moisture there may manifest more as stratus than fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm on Sunday and Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles then support the upper low cutting off from the flow on
Sunday as surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. This
should keep us dry to close out the weekend and warmer than Saturday
with less cloud cover. It`ll be unseasonably warm with a 70+% chance
of >80F for highs. Dew points should mix out some, but it could
still feel more like the mid 80s by the afternoon.
Expect the same out come on Sunday with warmer temperatures and
continued drier conditions. Once again, a dry forecast is
expected for Sunday with above normal temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Much greater uncertainty for the beginning of next week dependent
  on tropical low development and track
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Eyes turn to the Atlantic at the beginning of next week with
potential tropical development offshore of the Carolinas. Two areas
of low pressure are favored to develop with one disturbance moving
along the coast out of the Caribbean and Humberto remaining
offshore. A complicated pattern evolves with how all of this may
play out with numerous solutions still in play. The bottom line
right now is that notable impact to our area is not expected.
All ensembles support high pressure sinking south through Ontario by
mid-week albeit with slight differences in strength and timing. One
possible solution is that the developing disturbance gets absorbed
by the southeast CONUS trough/cut off low, very slowly meanders
around the coast, and brings increased cloud coverage areawide with
some rain to the southern part of our area for the beginning of the
week. It`s also possible that the high builds in quicker and
stronger and is able to shunt the rain shield to our south and east.
This solution provides a dry and warmer forecast locally. The
uncertainty is represented well by NBM MaxT spread Tuesday and
Wednesday being as high as 10 degrees between the 25th/75th
percentiles (as warm as the upper 70s or as cool as the upper 60s).
The current forecast essentially depicts the center of the road
among possible solutions which is likely unrepresentative of the
actual outcome as it`s more likely that we`ll go down one path or
the other. Once more answers become clear, temperature and
precipitation chances will trend up/down, but for now given the
uncertainty, have held with NBM which introduces mentionable PoPs
south of Pittsburgh Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly high and mid level clouds are expected across most
airports today. A few showers are possible near LBE and MGW, as
they are in closer proximity to low pressure passing to our
south (and associated ascent and more favorable moisture).
Maintained PROB30 mentions for this. Skies should partially
clear tonight as the low tracks newd to the Mid Atlantic coast.
Fog will be possible again late tonight into early Sunday
morning with lingering low-level moisture and efficient
radiative cooling under clearing skies.
.OUTLOOK....
Fog and stratus is likely to continue into Sunday morning,
before VFR returns under high pressure. This high should then
maintain VFR conditions through mid week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...MLB/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Cermak/WM

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion