Belden, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

089
FXUS64 KMEG 271102
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
602 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Drier and cooler air will filter in resulting in pleasant
  conditions through this weekend.
- Highs will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s today, gradually
  warming into the upper 80s by next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Much clearer, drier weather will persist tonight behind an upper
trough parked to our east. With clear skies, optimal radiational
cooling conditions will allow for lows to decrease to fall-like
temperatures. Many areas could see temperatures as low as 55 F
this morning with NBM/HREF both showing widespread areas
containing a 60% or greater chance through the night. As such,
today will also remain temperate with highs in the 80s and a
stout mid-level inversion hampering any attempts at precipitation.
The trough to our east will remain through Sunday and Monday,
although weakening a bit. With time, temperatures will start
warming as upper ridging gradually moves in behind the trough.
Sunday and Monday will see highs in the mid 80s before gradually
rising into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. The lack of any
troughing will keep precipitation chances low as upper level
ridging suppresses attempts at deeper convection.
While we experience pleasant weather this weekend, two tropical
systems (Humberto/Imelda) will be making their way north in the
Atlantic. Guidance is in good agreement that Imelda will
eventually make her way to the Atlantic Coastline Monday, but
differ on the evolution of the storm into the rest of the week.
This would have impacts on the subsequent evolution of the upper
low to our east, potentially amplifying the system and hurling a
couple shortwaves our way. Hurricane-specific models (HWRF/HAFS/HMON)
are content on bringing the system ashore and merging with the
upper trough to our east (the amplified solution). However, many
ensemble solutions within the EURO/GEFS suites, including their
parent deterministic guidance, stall Imelda offshore, eventually
allowing her to curve back out to sea (less amplified solution).
Given this, models still seem too split down the middle to choose
either scenario, but if any energy is able to make its way back to
us, some increase in precipitation chances is possible through the
latter half of the week.
By Thursday and Friday of next week, all three systems will have
evacuated the CONUS with ridging building in across the Plains and
a surface trough sliding down across the Northeast. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s, but some cooler air is possible with
backdoor cold fronts from the east. Some precipitation is also
possible with these fronts, but forecast uncertainty in their
strength, position, and surface moisture precludes mentionable PoPs
within the current forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
High pressure will result in VFR conditions persisting through
the period. Winds will be from the north up to 8 kts during
daylight hours, light overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No fire weather concerns through at least this weekend, as recent
rains have saturated soils and MinRHs remain at or above 40%. Dry
conditions will be present for the next 7 days, so some minor
fire danger may be on the rise next week depending on humidity.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion