Belew Creek, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS62 KRAH 111653
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1255 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a
northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into
the region will bring periods of clouds each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
SW flow aloft will prevail across central NC today, on the east side
of a positively-tilted mid-level trough that slowly moves from the
OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. However, the main story will be the
moist low-level air mass still in place, due to NNE flow between
surface high pressure extending down from Quebec into the
Appalachians and a frontal zone east of the NC coast. This is
bringing fairly widespread low clouds to the region, outside of the
western Piedmont where drier air is resulting in more clearing. Some
patchy rain and drizzle has developed, and despite the clouds being
too shallow for any ice to form, there have still been a few areas
with decent returns on radar and observations exceeding a tenth of
an inch. This includes KRDU, which actually reported 0.33 inches of
rain from 2 to 3 AM. Additional light rain and drizzle will be
possible in the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain
overnight, so have slight chance POPs there. In the western Piedmont
where there is more clearing, some patchy shallow fog will be
possible late tonight and early this morning, which is already
beginning to show up in observations and satellite imagery to the
north over south-central VA.
The cold front and elongated low pressure along it will move farther
E/NE into the Atlantic today, so drier air and below-normal PW
values will gradually erode the remainder of the moist low-level air
mass across central NC. While skies will initially range from mostly
sunny west to mostly cloudy east this morning, clouds will gradually
scatter out even in the east this afternoon. This will bring
decreasing chances for rain and drizzle, but with weak MUCAPE on the
order of 100-300 J/kg, CAMS and global models still show a few
isolated showers can`t be ruled out across the Coastal Plain, so
have slight chance POPs there. With continued N/NE flow at the
surface, high temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal,
ranging from mid-to-upper-70s in the Coastal Plain where cloud cover
will be most persistent to lower-80s elsewhere. Thursday night`s
lows will drop into the mid-50s to lower-60s under mostly clear
skies. Patchy fog will be possible across the entire region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Thursday...
The mid/upper trough will slowly move east across central NC on
Friday and Friday night, with a ridge building over the Southern
Plains. But with surface high pressure centered over SE Canada and
New England extending down into the Mid-Atlantic, below-normal PW
values should keep away any rain chances, and skies will be partly
to mostly sunny. Persistent NE flow from the high will keep high
temperatures slightly below normal, in the upper-70s to lower-80s.
Friday night`s lows will be in the mid-to-upper-50s under clear
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...
* Dry weather with near-normal temperatures likely.
Surface ridging and high pressure will generally continue to
dominate over central North Carolina in the long term period.
Temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees below normal, or in
the upper 70s to the low 80s, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Temperatures should rise Sunday and Monday, making Monday the
warmest day of the forecast with highs in the 80s. A dry backdoor
cold front looks to move through the region Monday with stronger
surface high pressure building back in behind it. This should allow
temperatures to drop back into the low-to-mid 80s on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Moisture should be limited during the long
term period which allows for no rain expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Thursday...
Shallow fog at INT/GSO this morning has dissipated, leaving fair
skies at those sites, however sub-VFR cigs persist at this hour near
and E of Hwy 1, including at RDU/RWI/FAY, a result of a steady
influx of low level moisture moving NNE to SSW from E VA. Isolated
patches of light rain are also noted along and E of I-95. This
threat for patchy light rain will continue in the far E (RWI/FAY)
through the rest of this afternoon, with a slow rise in cigs at
RDU/RWI/FAY, such that VFR cigs are expected at these sites by about
19z-21z. VFR conditions will hold areawide through the midnight
hour, then areas of sub-VFR stratus and patchy fog are expected to
form across the N overnight, most likely impacting RWI/RDU with
lower confidence at GSO/INT/FAY. RDU/RWI should trend to at least
MVFR by 07z-09z, with a period of IFR conditions possible just
before and around sunrise, while the remaining TAF sites may only
briefly drop to MVFR. Cigs in the northeast CWA should then slowly
lift and break up through the end of the TAF valid period. Overall
confidence is not high, however, since the low levels will be
gradually drying out, making low clouds and fog less likely. Surface
winds will be mostly from the NE or N under 8 kts.
Looking beyond 18z Friday, once any lingering sub-VFR stratus in the
northeast CWA dissipates in the early afternoon, central NC
terminals should be mostly VFR into early next week. Ridges of high
pressure extending in from the north will dominate at the surface,
although a few more clouds and gusty winds are possible late Fri
with passage of an upper level trough into the area. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion