Bena Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

471
FXUS61 KAKQ 070643
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue today before a strong
cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. This will bring scattered
showers Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures arrive late this week
behind the cold front. A coastal low may develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend, potentially resulting in rain and breezy
conditions for a portion of the local area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Continued mild and pleasant through this afternoon.
- Scattered rain showers move into western and northwestern portions
of the area tonight.
Early this morning, high pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is located well to our northwest,
currently over the Great Lakes region. Skies are mostly clear and
winds are generally light and variable. Patchy fog (mainly thin,
ground fog) has developed across portions of the area, with the
highest coverage mainly over interior portions of NE NC and up into
interior SE VA. Lows are on track to range from the mid to upper 50s
with lower 60s across the SE and along the immediate coast.
High pressure becomes situated further offshore and the cold front
will continue to approach from the NW as we head through the day.
Skies will start off sunny to mostly sunny, with mid and high level
clouds gradually thickening (especially by this evening) from west
to east. Any AM patchy fog dissipates quickly after sunrise with dry
weather expected through sunset. Another mild day with highs in the
lower 80s (locally mid 80s).
As we head into tonight, the front approaches the region from the
west with skies becoming mostly cloudy to overcast. The night starts
off dry, but showers begin to quickly move in from the west, likely
overspreading the NW half of the area by sunrise Wednesday AM. Total
QPF will range from ~0.10" to 0.35" across the NW through tonight.
Lows remain mild due to the increase in cloud cover/moisture, with
widespread readings in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers are expected on Wednesday as a strong cold front
moves through.
- Much cooler weather arrives Thursday, with 30s across our NW
counties Thursday night/Friday AM.
A strong cold front crosses the area later Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms)
develop along and ahead of the front, with the highest rain chances
for much of the area during the first half of the day. Rainfall
totals have remained consistent with 0.25-0.75" of rain (most around
0.5") expected. Locally higher totals around 1" are possible. Due to
the precipitation and the front moving into the area, temperatures
will be cooler Wednesday, generally ranging from around 70 NW to
around 80 SE. Any rain chances come to an end later Wednesday
evening into the first part of Wednesday night, with much cooler and
drier air filtering into the area behind the front. It will also
become breezy near/along the immediate coast with NNE winds gusting
to 25 to 30 mph (potentially up to 35 mph in spots). Temperatures
fall back into the 40s inland and 50s across the SE and along the
coast.
High pressure builds N/NW of the region on Thursday. Much cooler on
Thursday with temperatures only in the low to mid 60s for most of
the area. Skies will range from sunny to mostly sunny, but it will
remain breezy out of the NE (especially closer to the coast). It
will be a chilly night Thursday night, with low temperatures
dropping back into the upper 30s across our NW counties to the low
to mid 50s across the SE. The latest NBM 25th percentile has trended
cooler, with mid 30s across much of the NW Piedmont and the NBM 10th
now showing some lower 30s. Given this, will have to watch for the
potential for patchy frost across portions of Louisa and Fluvanna
counties. Will note that this is on track with the fall median (50%)
first potential frost for Louisa which is ironically 10/10 (10/12
for Palmyra). See the "Fall First Frost and Freeze Dates" on our
website for more specifics.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- A coastal low is possible by this weekend and may bring rain  and
breezy conditions to the area.
Aloft, a trough remains across the Southeast into early next week.
By the weekend, a ridge across the central CONUS becomes positively
tilted and orients from SW to NE between a trough across the Pacific
Northwest and over the Southeast. At the surface, a strong area of
high pressure builds in (centered across interior New England) late
this week, gradually lifting north by this weekend. This will result
in continued cooler weather with highs in the mid-upper 60s inland
(lower 70s across far SE VA/NE NC) on Friday. Highs have trended
cooler for the weekend with temps expected to remain in the 60s to
lower 70s SE for highs each day. Lows will be quite cool as well,
upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE (around 60F along the coast) Friday and
Saturday nights, and low-mid 50s (upper 50s along the coast) Monday
night.
There remains a lot of uncertainty in the extended forecast, with a
possible coastal low developing off the Carolinas this weekend.
Confidence is increasing that this low will develop given strong
ensemble support, but the exact track of the low is a little more
uncertain as some guidance brings it along our coast, while others
have it displaced further offshore. Pending the track of this
coastal low, there is potential that we could see widespread
rainfall and breezy to windy conditions, especially along the coast,
this weekend. We will continue to monitor any model trends in the
track and strength of this developing low closely over the next few
days and adjust the forecast as necessary.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...
Mainly clear skies/VFR conditions continue early this morning.
The position of the sfc high offshore w/ an approaching cold
front typically is not favorable for widespread fog, though
patchy fog/ground fog will still be possible after midnight
through ~12Z, primarily across interior SE VA/NE NC. SCT CU,
along with increasing high clouds is expected this afternoon,
with winds becoming S at around 10 kt. A few showers are
possible late in the TAF period, but this is expected to stay W
of the main terminals until later tonight.
Outlook: Degraded flying conditions arrive tonight into
Wednesday. Scattered showers are expected on Wednesday along
and ahead of a cold front. Skies will clear out in the wake of
the front Wednesday night, with a breezy NNE wind at the coast
continuing into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in. Another
period of sub-VFR CIGs are possible as we head into this
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Benign conditions today through Tuesday night, with a good
  chance of at least solid SCA conditions from Wednesday night
  through at least Thursday night with NE winds.
- SCA conditions (especially due to seas) likely continue from Friday
  through next weekend. A period of gale force gusts is
  possible this weekend as coastal low pressure potentially
  impacts the area.
High pressure is centered just offshore of the local waters with
variable winds of ~5 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft. Benign marine
conditions continue through tonight with winds becoming S at 5-10 kt
as the surface high slowly shifts further offshore. Southerly winds
increase to 10-15 kt by late Tuesday well in advance of an
approaching cold front. Winds increase further to ~15 kts across the
northern waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with marginal
SCA possible over the northern Bay. The strong cold front approaches
and crosses the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
Winds become N-NE at 20-25 kt by Wednesday evening-night with
frequent gusts to 30 kt expected. Winds become more northeasterly on
Thursday and remain elevated with frequent gusts of ~30 kt expected
throughout the day. Probabilities for gale force gusts remain in the
10-20% range for most of this time. However, we will need to watch
for a short (~3 hour) period of 35 kt gusts immediately following
the FROPA Wednesday evening. Could certainly see the need for an SMW
or two. However, confidence in a prolonged period of gales is low
despite the strong CAA as 925-950mb winds are only expected to be in
the 25-30 kt range from Wed night-Thu. Therefore, no Gale Watches
were issued with the afternoon package. Seas will average 2-3 ft
through Tuesday. Seas quickly build back to 6-9 ft by Thursday
behind the front.
While winds may diminish a bit by Friday-Friday night, seas likely
remain elevated. The forecast becomes much more uncertain as we head
into the weekend. Confidence is increasing that low pressure
develops off the SE CONUS coast and deepens as it tracks NE toward
local waters. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding its exact strength and track. Regardless, winds will
likely pick back up on Sat/Sat night (with elevated winds lasting
into Sunday). Solid SCA conditions appear likely with a period of
gales possible. Seas of 8-10 feet or higher are possible as well
this weekend.
Rip Currents: The rip current risk gradually decreases early this
week. Hazardous surf conditions are expected once again by Wed
night/Thu due to short period large breaking waves.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...
No coastal flooding is expected through Wednesday night. Given the
very high astronomical tides combined with moderately strong NE
winds, minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the lower
Ches Bay and tidal York/James on Thursday and Friday. Additional
coastal flooding is possible this weekend.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/RMM
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion