Bend, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

088
FXUS64 KSJT 060741
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
241 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few
  thunderstorms possible into tonight.
- Rain chances will continue Sunday into Monday, with dry
  conditions returning by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Early this morning, a cold front was bisecting the forecast area
and as of 2 AM was located just north of a San Angelo to Brownwood
line. The front will drift south through the morning hours and is
expected to be south of I-10 by mid to late morning. Remnant
moisture from what was Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to
advect eastward from northern Mexico. Abundant cloud cover will
prevail today and with a cooler airmass behind the front,
temperatures will be well below normal. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms will persist today into tonight, with the
highest rain chances (30 to 60%) from the Concho Valley and
Heartland southward to the I-10 corridor. While the threat for
flooding rains is low today, precipitable water values will range
between 1.5 and 1.8 inches, which will contribute to some heavy
downpours at times. Highs today will generally be in the mid and
upper 70s, with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Some of the moisture off of the eastern Pacific wave will continue
drifting across the area on Sunday and Monday. This will interact
with some weak disturbances aloft and provide a chance for continued
rain showers and thunderstorms across the area. Ample moisture will
allow for efficient rainfall production that could result in fairly
high rainfall rates. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked the
I-10 corridor with a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) of seeing
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. This will be the
primary concern for Sunday and Monday.
Otherwise, the GFS and ECMWF develop high pressure across the Plains
by midweek, which will keep our area hotter and drier. Highs are
likely to return to the middle 90s by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Expect MVFR ceilings to develop across the terminals towards
daybreak and persist through late morning and early afternoon.
The exception will be KABI where a combination of MVFR/IFR
ceilings will prevail overnight into the morning hours. Isolated
to widely scattered showers will continue overnight into the
morning hours. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms, but will not
include thunder at the TAF sites and will watch radar trends for
possible amendments. Ceilings expected to rise to VFR by tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will remain light the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  64  85  65 /  30  20  20  10
San Angelo  76  64  83  65 /  40  30  40  10
Junction    79  65  83  66 /  50  50  70  20
Brownwood   76  64  83  63 /  30  20  30  10
Sweetwater  75  64  84  66 /  30  20  30  10
Ozona       78  64  82  66 /  50  50  60  10
Brady       76  64  80  65 /  40  40  50  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion