Benedicta, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS61 KCAR 251852
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
252 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the region tonight, then exits across the
Canadian Maritimes Friday. High pressure crosses the region
Saturday and remains just south of the waters through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper level divergence is increasing over a developing
surface low pressure system over New York State this afternoon.
500mb energy will support the low to continue tracking NE
towards Maine tonight. A large mass of rainfall is pushing
through southern and western New England and will continue
moving into the CWA through the next several hours. Widespread
beneficial rainfall will help but not drought bust tonight.
Rainfall will become moderate at times with the most rainfall
falling between 8PM and 2AM overnight. S-SE winds will increase
with 10-15mph breeze in the rain. A warm sector will push into
the Downeast and Central Highlands which will enhance the PWATs
to 200-250 percent of normal which will be close to daily
record levels at GYX and CAR. Expecting rather good rainfall
rates but flooding is not expected given the severe to extreme
drought underway, but we could see urban poor drainage issues.
Due to the warm sector weak elevated instability and history
this afternoon of lightning on GLM will continue the idea of a
few lightning strikes tonight. Lastly, fog will develop and may
become dense at times within the heavy rainfall reducing
visibility.
Tomorrow low pressure tracks NE into the Maritimes with surface
high pressure building in from the west. Upper level shortwave
energy will not have cleared yet so rain tapers to just a few
showers in the morning as the cold front pushes east. Skies will
break but cold air aloft will result in more clouds in the
upslope locations of the Longfellow Mtns to Northeast Aroostook
County. W-NW winds 10-15mph tomorrow and will help dry out the
atmosphere. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to low 70s
north, mid to upper 70s on the downslopes from the Dover-Fox to
Danforth region southward to the coast.
Tomorrow night light NW winds will keep things from decoupling
which means any frost will be isolated in the North Woods. The
frost program has ended in the North Woods. Will need to monitor
the trend if decoupling becomes more widespread. Generally
elsewhere lows in the 40s and near 50F Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday...Quiet day Saturday with stable northwest flow over
the area with high pressure moving in from the west. Extremely
dry airmass with even cumulus clouds appearing unlikely, and
full sunshine in store. Northwest breeze 5-10 mph and highs
ranging from the low to mid 60s north, to the low 70s Downeast.
Saturday Night...Surface high pressure overhead in the evening
moves east of us overnight with increasing clouds from the west.
Looks like a cool night with mid/upper 30s north and mid 40s
Downeast, though temperatures may rise some toward dawn as
clouds increase from the west.
Sunday...Perhaps a few showers in the north in the morning (20
percent chance). 12z GFS and GEFS are a dramatic departure from
previous runs and other ensemble system, and have increased
moisture coming in from the southwest with decent rain Downeast.
Disregarding this solution for now to see if it goes away or if
other models go along. Warmer temperatures Sunday with low/mid
70s and a decent southwest breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and quiet is the story for Sunday night through Friday.
Northwest flow transitions to more northerly flow later Tuesday
into Wednesday, with temperatures falling each day Monday to
Wednesday, then perhaps rising a bit Thursday/Friday.
Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday for highs, but only
around the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday. Frosty nights are
possible toward midweek. A very strong upper level ridge will
remain to our west this whole time, and will block any potential
tropical systems to our south from getting this far north, and
keep the atmosphere very dry in general.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR cigs/vsby becoming IFR/LIFR this evening.
SHRA becoming RA with +RA possible. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up
to 20kt. Tonight, RA and BR may reduce vsby lower than 1SM
especially at BGR and BHB. Cigs will drop to 001-003. Cannot
rule out VCTS but confidence very low. At BGR and BHB LLWS
likely tonight till the wind shift around 06-08z. Sfc winds at
all sites will shift from S to W-SW early morning. RA will taper
to VCSH/SHRA in the AM and most sites dry by mid morning but
cannot rule out VCSH at northern terms tomorrow. W-NW winds
5-15kt tomorrow as MVFR/IFR becomes VFR tomorrow.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday night...Mostly VFR, though localized fog could lead to
patchy IFR after midnight. Light winds.
Sunday...Mostly VFR. W/SW wind 10 kts.
Sunday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late.
Otherwise, VFR. W/SW winds 5 kts or less.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR. W wind 5-10 kts...becoming NW on
Tuesday. Gusts 15-20 kts in afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters until 5PM
Friday and Intra-Coastal Waters from 8PM tonight to 5PM Friday.
S winds tonight gusting 25-30kt. Winds will shift W-SW tonight
as low pressure tracks N of the waters. Rain and fog will reduce
vsby less than 1NM at times tonight. Cannot rule out a few
lightning strikes within heavy rain through tonight. Seas will
build to 4-6ft tonight then subside to 3-4ft tomorrow.
Winds/seas go back below SCA conditions in the evening tomorrow.
Winds will shift NW tomorrow evening and relax with seas back to
1-3ft. Sea surface water temperatures are 53-57F from the
Downeast coast out 25NM and east to the Hague Line including
Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bays.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft through Monday
night. Potential (around 60 percent) for small craft seas
Tuesday to Thursday as long period swells arrive from tropical
systems far south of our waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Sinko/Foisy
Marine...Sinko/Foisy

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion