Bennett, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

851
FXUS63 KPAH 221704
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1204 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms will provide
  appreciable soaking rains broadly across the region this week.
  2-3" average areal amounts are cumulatively expected, with
  locally higher amounts potential.
- A pleasant retreat from still muggy highs in the lower 80s
  will transition into the 70s as the week wears on, and
  humidity levels will soon follow with a similar downward
  trend toward the end of the week into next weekend, when dry
  weather returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A nice dip in the H5 pattern is picked up by the models and is
responsible for ongoing convection, as it is shooting its
positive vorticity advection across the FA thru the morning
hours. Instability fields wane eastward, and modeled lapse rates
are paltry, so anticipate more of the same with a general
weakening trend as the wave lifts on thru. Most should get a
nice soaking out of this round, the near beginning of multiple
rounds expected this week. It is going to leave a cloudy first
half to two thirds of the day, but some eventual afternoon break
may provide just enough late day heating that could pop
instability up enough to trail its axes into our eastern
counties with redevelopment as the wave moves east/out of the
FA. These storms would be the ones for stronger potential if one
can occur. The wave has about 30-35 kts of bulk shear riding
with it, so it`s nothing to scoff at, esp during peak heating.
After that, the models suggest another similar, albeit more
subtle kink shoots a wave of pva across our southern/eastern
counties tonight. It`d bring another spike in pops and is
reflected by the NBM w/likely-categorical mention...providing
another good soaking rain.
After its passage, another pause before more channelled
vorticity advects into the FA late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Again, the NBM seems to pick up on this nicely, driving pops
toward/into categorical mention again. Another good soaking rain
will be accompanied with a little better instability and shear,
so the marginal risk zone across our south and east looks good
to hold. And after the antecedent soaking rains, another burst
of heavy rains sees PW`s having moved from around 1.5" to around
1.75" or closer to the 90th percentile, and the more
efficient/cumulate impact moves us from MRGL to SLGT on the
ERO`s for Tuesday-Wednesday; a nice bite into our drought
conditions should bear realization by then.
High temperatures still into the 80s with dew points near 70F
hold the first half of the week, provding a summer-like feel to
the air. But all the clouds/pcpn helps mute highs back into the
70s over the back half of the week, with dew points soon to fall
thru the 60s, maybe into the 50s by next weekend as the primary
long wave low exits and we begin to dry out again.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The first round of showers and storms over the eastern terminals
will exit the region this afternoon. IFR/MVFR cigs will remain
probable mainly across the northern terminals. Additional
scattered showers and storms will be possible later this
afternoon and evening across all terminals. Brief vsby and cig
reductions can be expected with storms along with isolated
gusty winds.
Pcpn now tapers off quicker for the overnight; however, there
is a strong signal on the latest model guidance for areas of fog
to develop early Tuesday morning. Have included LIFR TEMPOs for
all terminals, but it is possible some of the western terminals
in particular could reach VLIFR with patchy dense fog.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion