Berclair, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS64 KJAN 201116
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
616 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The weather pattern will continue to be hotter than normal and
somewhat disturbed as we go through the weekend into early next
week. Given hot and unstable conditions, widely scattered showers
and a few storms will develop each afternoon, and a stray storm
or two may briefly reach severe limits.
The forecast gets more interesting during the middle of next
week. Global models have trended more amplified with a shortwave
trough expected to dig southward through the Mississippi Valley
region. As the trough digs and deep layer flow increases, a
developing surface wave and strengthening warm sector will lower
pressures over the forecast area Wednesday. This could result in a
threat for strong to marginally severe multicell clusters and
perhaps a few supercells if the cold frontal timing and storm
initiation coincide with peak heating. We are currently not
messaging for severe weather in our graphics and products, but it
may be a potential threat to monitor as we go through the next
few days.
Going into late week, the trough should slowly shift east, which
could prolong the potential for beneficial rainfall as cyclonic
flow lingers. Otherwise, temperatures will cool to near typical
values for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Isolated SHRA or TSRA are possible after 18Z, but confidence in
impacts from thunder was too low to mention in TAFs at this time.
/CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  70  93  69 /  20  10  20  10
Meridian      94  68  94  67 /  20  10  20  10
Vicksburg     94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   96  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
Natchez       94  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
Greenville    94  69  94  68 /  10  10  20  20
Greenwood     95  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/CR

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion