Bernardo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

186
FXUS64 KHGX 200511
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- More of the same Saturday.
- Increased moisture Sunday into next week should lead to better
  chances of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
No major forecast changes in store for Saturday...anticipating
isolated showers and storms in the afternoon in association with the
sea breeze. Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm. Sunday will begin the
transition to a prevailing southeasterly flow. This will result in
an increase in Gulf moisture, leading to an increase in cloud cover
and consequently lower daytime highs. This pattern is expected to
continue into next week with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The highest chances for showers/storms resides in the
Metro down towards the coast and offshore for Sunday, becoming more
scattered across the area into next week. Expect most of the inland
activity to occur during the daytime with overnight/morning activity
occuring offshore.
Models continue to show some disagreement in what will trigger the
precipitation for next week. It appears there is the potential for a
mid-week weak frontal boundary (ECMWF and GFS both hinting at this).
500mb level shows some pulses of energy moving along the overall NW
flow and sweeping across our northern tier counties, so will need to
monitor for storms to potentially fire up in that area as a result
of that.
In any case, there is increasing potential for showers and
thunderstorms next week. Coverage is expected to be scattered and
not expecting a whole lot in the way of rainfall totals.
Temperatures will be warm through the week, with highs in the 90s
for much of the area and lows in the 70s to low 80s.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Persistence forecast with light and variable winds tonight,
increasing by Friday afternoon around 8-12 knots. Patchy fog will
be possible early in the morning, especially near KCXO. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon; therefore,
will continue with PROB30 at least for terminals along the I-10
corridor. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through most of the
TAF cycle.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and 2 to 4
foot seas should continue through Saturday along with some isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The pattern will
transition to a prevailing southeast wind direction Sunday, along
with a gradual increase in rain chances into next week.
Adams/47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  92  72  95 /   0  30   0  20
Houston (IAH)  74  90  75  92 /  10  60  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  79  88  80  87 /  40  60  20  40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Adams/47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion