905 FXUS63 KDDC 232227 AFDDDCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 527 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
- A dry pattern returns Wednesday afternoon onward, through at least the upcoming weekend.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 527 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Updated forecast to increase pops significantly tonight through early Wednesday, at least into the likely category (60+%)for much of SW KS. Incoming, final shortwave appears quite robust on satellite imagery, and dynamic lift will increase sharply after midnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers are anticipated. With models cooling midlevel 500 mb temperatures to -12 to -13C, and CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, at least isolated thunder is probable. Amounts up to 0.25 inch should be common, as the wet summer now continues into the fall. Rain coverage and cloud cover will decrease quickly Wednesday afternoon, followed by dry weather through next weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An upper level low will move through the area tonight and enhance lift across the area. Low clouds will redevelop with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA overnight. Heavy rain will be possible in some of these showers increasing the chance of flooding across west central Kansas. These showers should move out of the area by tomorrow morning with clearing skies expected tomorrow. Wind will generally be from a northerly direction through tomorrow, becoming light tomorrow night. Lows tonight will dip into the 50s with low 60s across central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the low 70s with lows tomorrow night ranging from the upper 40s across far western Kansas to mid 50s across central Kansas.
A dry pattern emerges Thursday into the remainder of the forecast period as upper level ridging builds over the area with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. Skies will generally be mostly clear through Friday with some increasing cloudiness this weekend. A warming trend is expected during this period with highs in the upper 70s Thursday, then 80s for the remainder of the period. Lows will be in the 50s.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High confidence degraded flight categories will return this TAF period, with widespread MVFR/IFR stratus developing after 02z Wed. Airports are expected to remain dry through 06z Wed. The passage of one final shortwave is expected to produce widespread light rain 06-15z Wed, with modestly reduced visibility in BR/-RA. Rain coverage will decrease after 15z Wed, with improving ceilings. Behind the shortwave after 15z Wed, north winds will increase at all airports, gusting 25-28 kts.
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.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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UPDATE...Turner DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Turner
NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion