Bison, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

905
FXUS63 KDDC 232227
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning.
- A dry pattern returns Wednesday afternoon onward, through at
  least the upcoming weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 527 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Updated forecast to increase pops significantly tonight through
early Wednesday, at least into the likely category (60+%)for
much of SW KS. Incoming, final shortwave appears quite robust on
satellite imagery, and dynamic lift will increase sharply after
midnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers are anticipated.
With models cooling midlevel 500 mb temperatures to -12 to -13C,
and CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, at least isolated thunder is
probable. Amounts up to 0.25 inch should be common, as the wet
summer now continues into the fall. Rain coverage and cloud
cover will decrease quickly Wednesday afternoon, followed by dry
weather through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An upper level low will move through the area tonight
and enhance lift across the area. Low clouds will redevelop
with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
northern half of the CWA overnight. Heavy rain will be possible
in some of these showers increasing the chance of flooding
across west central Kansas. These showers should move out of the
area by tomorrow morning with clearing skies expected tomorrow.
Wind will generally be from a northerly direction through
tomorrow, becoming light tomorrow night. Lows tonight will dip
into the 50s with low 60s across central Kansas. Highs tomorrow
look to reach into the low 70s with lows tomorrow night ranging
from the upper 40s across far western Kansas to mid 50s across
central Kansas.
A dry pattern emerges Thursday into the remainder of the
forecast period as upper level ridging builds over the area
with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface.
Skies will generally be mostly clear through Friday with some
increasing cloudiness this weekend. A warming trend is expected
during this period with highs in the upper 70s Thursday, then
80s for the remainder of the period. Lows will be in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High confidence degraded flight categories will return this TAF
period, with widespread MVFR/IFR stratus developing after
02z Wed. Airports are expected to remain dry through 06z Wed.
The passage of one final shortwave is expected to produce
widespread light rain 06-15z Wed, with modestly reduced
visibility in BR/-RA. Rain coverage will decrease after 15z Wed,
with improving ceilings. Behind the shortwave after 15z Wed,
north winds will increase at all airports, gusting 25-28 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion