Black Hawk, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

399
FXUS65 KBOU 051819
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1219 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Still hazy/smoky in/near the mountains today, possibly lasting
  through Saturday.
- Increase in coverage of showers and storms today
  through this weekend, but mainly over the higher terrain.
- Warmer with fewer showers and thunderstorms next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
A shortwave trough will round the upper level low over Hudson Bay
and travel south across the Northern Plains. This will drive cold
front south across Colorado this evening. ACARS and forecast
soundings show moisture and instability will be limited the rest
of this afternoon and tonight. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Gusty winds and mainly
light rainfall is expected from the showers and thunderstorms.
Gusty northeast winds will accompany the front with gusts to 40
mph. Satellite imagery showing a large area of smoke to the north
that will travel southward behind the front. This cold front will
also usher in much cooler air for Friday with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s across northeast Colorado. Moisture will be a
little higher Friday afternoon, but a strongly capped airmass will
keep showers and storms forming over the lower elevation. The
higher terrain, which will be above the cap, is expected to see a
round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Friday.
For the weekend, we will see upper level ridging off to the west,
across the Great Basin. Over Colorado, a northwest flow aloft
will prevail. Moisture levels remain high enough for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. On Saturday, most and perhaps all of
the showers and storms will be over the higher terrain. Soundings
still show a capped airmass across the lower elevations. However,
a few showers and storms could move east/southeast off the higher
terrain and onto the nearby lower elevations before dissipating.
On Sunday, it is looking like the lower elevations warm up enough
to break the cap. This will lead to better chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the lower elevations. High temperatures for
the weekend are expected to be in the 70s with lower 80s mixed in
for Sunday.
The upper level ridge slides east across Colorado Monday.
Temperatures warm up more with highs in the 80s across northeast
Colorado. Drier air accompanies the ridging with only a few weak
showers/thunderstorms for the higher terrain.
For Tuesday through Thursday, the ridge slides off to the east,
but then stalls just east of Colorado over the Central Plains. The
ridge is then expected to intensify later in the week. Over
Colorado a weak south/southwest flow aloft is expected. Still a
fair amount of uncertainty on how strong the ridge will be and the
placement of it. Given the expected placement of the ridge, highs
should reach the mid to upper 80s each day with an outside chance
at some lower 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances should be best
across the western half of Colorado, further away from the
ridging. Can`t rule out storms for eastern Colorado either. That`s
if we can get some sort of an easterly push, to increase low
level moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions expected through this evening. With expected
increasing wildfire smoke aloft, smoke will linger through today
and tomorrow for all TAF sites, which will cause slant-range
visibility issues. Short term models do hint at a reprieve in the
early morning hours tomorrow. However, due to the uncertainty,
kept smoke in the TAF for the period. In addition, with the lower
ceilings being slow to erode this morning, have kept a BKN050
through 02Z at the latest.
Winds should gradually turn NE for all TAF sites later this
afternoon as a cyclone moves out of the area. There is a chance of
showers for APA as early as 22Z, but should not impact BJC or DEN.
However, can`t rule out an outflow boundary pushing through DEN,
causing brief SW winds. Light drainage winds are expected
overnight.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Ideker

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion