888 FXUS63 KPAH 251103 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 603 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering clouds, light rain and showers may persist through the morning (and into the afternoon across the southern Pennyrile) additional heavy rain/flooding or strong severe storms currently appears unlikely.
- Another extended period of dry and seasonably warm conditions are forecast from Friday through the first half of next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A surface cold front is moving slowly southeast across the region this morning. Lingering light rain and rain showers cover a good chunk of the area. The main upper trough pushing this activity eastward is taking its time, and a few rain showers could persist over parts of the southern Pennyrile through early this afternoon, with most areas starting to dry up by late morning if not sooner.
Behind the front a drier airmass sets up with an omega blocking pattern establishing again at least for a few days. That pattern is then interrupted by the double-barrelled tropical cyclones projected by both operational GFS and ECMWF guidance. This twin tropical cyclone solution is obviously fairly unusual and more likely than not some destructive interference would occur making one of the storm`s emerge more dominant which would have an impact on our Day 4-7 or so pattern, but in general blocky/stagnant, warm and dry is likely to be the winner.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A surface front sits over southwest Kentucky this morning, making slow progress through the area. IFR conditions exist along the KY/TN border and may persist for another few hours. Otherwise improvements to VFR are anticipated with moderate northwest winds through the day. Winds will become light overnight, with ground fog possible in the pre-dawn hours Friday.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion