Bluffton, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

215
FXUS62 KTAE 232311
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
711 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Only minor changes in sensible weather are expected on Wednesday,
compared with today. The main change will be enough increase in
moisture for a few more air mass seabreeze-inspired showers in the
afternoon, mainly over our Florida and far south Georgia counties
along the seabreeze fronts.
The increase in moisture will come as a result of low-level flow
clocking around from light easterly today to light southerly on
Wednesday. The turn to southerly flow will occur as we come into the
environment well in advance of a cold front that will be moving
across the Arklatex and Mid-South regions late in the day. The air
mass across the east-central Gulf is considerably moister today than
it is over the tri-state area, so even weak southerly flow will
readily infuse more moisture into the air mass. Surface dewpoints of
70+F will become more common along and south of the I-10 corridor.
We will have the same hot afternoon air mass, with non-coastal high
temps of 90-95. When factoring in a couple-degree rise in dewpoints,
heat index values will reach 95F-102F. Though the calendar now says
autumn, it is not yet time to let pumpkin spice amnesia make you
forget your heat-related safety tactics.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An upper level low will continue to strengthen, broadening a
positively tilted trough from the Midwest. Troughing will begin to
dig into the Deep South starting tomorrow. The frontal boundary will
begin to bring moisture back increasing PWATS to over 2 inches.
Height levels begin to drop in the Tri-State area and adiabatic
lapse rates begin to steepen providing sufficient support for
increased instability in the latter end of the week. These
environmental conditions can bring convection capable of gusty winds
and frequent lightning and potential hail Thursday afternoon and
into Friday. Consequently, SPC currently has a marginal risk for the
convective day 3 outlook on Thursday.
Moving into the weekend, wet conditions continue to be expected as
the frontal boundary moves through the region. Drier air will be in
place following the wake of the front dropping dew points into the
mid to low 60s as the frontal passage appears to move through
sometime Saturday. Post front, temperatures are expected to increase
with max temps in the high 80s to low 90s for the start of next
week. The potential for a cut off low to retrograde over the area
can enable mid to upper level cloud cover next week before the low
gets pulled back into the main flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Light and variable winds overnight and should become southerly
during the day while remaining light. Patchy fog with low cigs are
likely for our western terminals (DHN and ECP) during the morning
hours, and clearing around 14z. VLD also has fog in the TAF due
to it being a moistening atmosphere and climatological
persistence. VFR cigs are on tap for this afternoon with scattered
fair-weather cumulus. There is a minimal chance for isolated
showers/thunderstorms during the late afternoon hours; potentially
affecting the TLH and VLD terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard fosters easterly
winds today with a local shift to southwesterly from the
afternoon seabreeze across the immediate nearshore legs. High
pressure then shifts farther east into the Atlantic in response
to an approaching frontal system on Wednesday. Winds turn
southerly, followed by southwesterly as the front approaches on
Thursday. Winds shift to out of the north/northwest on Saturday
following frontal passage. Winds will remain gentle-moderate
throughout the forecast period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Very warm and mostly dry conditions continue the next couple days
outside of isolated seabreeze convection. A frontal system then
moves into the region and is forecast to bring widespread wetting
rains in addition to thunderstorms. Pockets of high dispersions
are possible mainly north of the FL state line mid-week.
Southeast winds today turn more southwesterly along/ahead of the
front by Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Mostly dry weather holds for the next 2 days before a frontal system
brings the first meaningful chances for rain this month on Thursday.
Widespread amounts of at least a quarter of an inch are likely with
isolated 2-inches+ possible from the strongest thunderstorms. These
values, while beneficial, are not by any means drought-busting, but
it`s a start! The axis of greatest precipitation appears to be the
FL Panhandle, SE AL Wiregrass, and parts of the ACF basin. Although
look to dry out late Saturday or early Sunday following frontal
passage, these conditions may be short-lived depending on the
evolution of a cutoff area of low pressure expected to meander about
the Deep South. Stay tuned.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  93  71  91 /   0  10   0  30
Panama City   73  89  75  89 /   0  10   0  40
Dothan        68  94  70  91 /   0  10   0  60
Albany        70  96  70  94 /   0  10   0  40
Valdosta      70  95  71  93 /  10  10   0  30
Cross City    71  94  72  91 /   0  30  10  30
Apalachicola  73  86  75  86 /   0  10   0  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion