Bogart, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

753
FXUS62 KFFC 021810
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
210 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible for portions
  of west-central Georgia through this evening.
-Fall-like weather will persist through Saturday with dry, breezy
   conditions and near-normal temperatures.
- Warmer temperatures and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
      return to the area between Sunday and Thursday. Widespread
      soaking rainfall is unlikely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
It`s shaping up to be a fabulous Thursday across North and Central
Georgia. With surface high pressure and midlevel ridging staying put
across the region, fair weather is expected to continue through the
end of the week. Temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the
40s/50s will make for pleasant weather each afternoon. The main
point to note for the remainder of the afternoon will be elevated
fire conditions. Dewpoints over the next 24-36 hrs were lowered
slightly below guidance given breezy winds NE/E leading to better
mixing this afternoon. Though unlike yesterday, we are not quite as
warm today so there may only be a small window where a few locations
drop to near critical RH thresholds (~25%). Nevertheless, a Fire
Danger Statement remains in effect through this evening. With
generally a rinse and repeat forecast expected tomorrow, lower RH
values may also be a possibility for Friday. Thus, another Fire
Danger Statement may be considered.
While rain-free conditions and comfortable temperatures are
definitely preferred, these conditions will not help the current
drought situation across much of North and Central Georgia. Per the
latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued today, D0 (Abnormally Dry)
conditions have been observed nearly everywhere across the state
(extreme NE GA excluded) with D2 (Severe Drought) conditions
beginning to creep up across portions of west-central Georgia. We
will continue to monitor these trends in the coming days as rain-
free conditions are expected through at least Saturday. And with
October traditionally being one of our drier months it will be
interesting to see how this situation evolves not just in the short-
term but in the long term as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
As the long term period begins on Saturday, a large upper level
ridge will remain centered over the eastern CONUS, with an
associated surface high centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast. This
high pressure regime will keep dry conditions in place across the
forecast area for one more day, with minimal chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Low temperatures will start the morning
in the mid to upper 50s in north Georgia (aside from upper 40s to
low 50s in the far northern mountains) and low 60s in central
Georgia. Highs re then forecast to rise into the upper 70s to low
80s across the majority of the day in the afternoon. The surface
high will continue to meander eastward over the course of the day on
Saturday, with easterly low level flow expected to continue through
the day. The pressure gradient will remain fairly tight between this
high and a surface low near the coast of the Florida peninsula, with
wind speeds expected to peak between 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25
mph in the afternoon.
The orientation of the ridge will shift on Saturday, flattening on
its southern side and allowing east to west flow to develop in
Georgia. This will set up a change in the sensible weather across
the area on Sunday, as it will allow an easterly wave to move into
Georgia and an associated low pressure system to move across Florida
into the northern Gulf. As the easterly wave moves in surface
dewpoints will climb into the mid 60s across north Georgia and upper
60s to low 70s in central Georgia by Sunday afternoon. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will also return on the north side of the
weak low, though the coverage, intensity, and northward extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength of the ridge. The
ridge remaining stronger would serve to displace the wave further to
the south and keep showers and thunderstorms mostly confined to
central Georgia on Sunday afternoon. However, weakening in the ridge
would lead to a more northward position in the easterly wave,
with precipitation spreading into north Georgia as a result. To
account for this uncertainty, chance PoPs are forecast across
central Georgia, with slight chance PoPs as far north as the
Atlanta metro area to Gainesville.
The axis of the ridge will shift east of Georgia by Monday, which
will keep elevated dewpoints in place across the region through at
least mid-week. Furthermore, temperatures will gradually climb
through mid-week, with highs increasing by a couple of degrees each
day. By Wednesday, highs will largely be in the 80s across the
forecast area, which will be about 4-8 degrees above daily normals
for early October. These conditions will favor diurnally driven
convection, with isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area during the afternoon hours each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the period at all sites. FEW
to SCT 3-5kft Cu field across North GA with SKC elsewhere will be
the trend through the afternoon. Breezy NE/E winds with gusts
20-25kts possible through 00z then easing up slightly through the
overnight period (7-10kts sustained). Largely rinse and repeat
forecast for Friday.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         58  78  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     49  74  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    57  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        61  82  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     55  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           59  80  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            55  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  56  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         61  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...07

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion