Bolivar, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS61 KPBZ 250735
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
335 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread precipitation chances today, diminishing during the
late afternoon and evening. Drier conditions expected over the
weekend with a building ridge over the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Patchy fog this morning
- Precipitation most widespread during the morning
- Marginal risk of flooding mainly south and east of Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------------------------
An upper low over the northern lower peninsula of Michigan
continues to be the dominant forecast feature. Patchy dense fog
will diminish by mid-morning and at this time, current coverage
does not warrant any advisories.
Rain will become more widespread and moderate at times today
ahead and along of a crossing cold front and associated surface
low. The highest rainfall rates are likely between mid- morning
and mid- afternoon as the surface low crosses directly across or
just north of the forecast area.
WPC has expanded the Marginal Risk to include areas roughly
north up to I-80 for today. Fortunately (if it verifies) latest
hi-res and ensemble guidance leans towards the highest
precipitation amount roughly south of a line running from
Dubois-->Pittsburgh-->Zanesville. Along the same line, FFG
values are higher notably to the south and lower to the north,
so hopefully the highest precipitation amounts trend south. The
highest total observed amounts over the past 72 hours are along
and north of the above mentioned line. So if heavier
precipitation trends along or north of that line, that may be
the area that has the highest potential for seeing any flood
impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower chances taper off this evening
- Drier, warmer on Friday
----------------------------------------------------------------
As the trough axis shifts east out of the Great Lakes,
precipitation chances will taper off from west to east this
evening, east of the ridges by around midnight. Increasing mid-
and upper-level dry air will keep any remaining precipitation
low in coverage and light overnight.
Friday will be largely dry as shortwave ridging transitions over
the region, which will also increase daytime highs back up close
to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures into next
  week.
------------------------------------------------------------------
A weak closed low north of the Mississippi River Valley could
possibly bring some light shower activity across the West
Virginia ridges and the Laurel Highlands over the weekend as it
slowly transitions northeast. Latest ensemble guidance gives a
40% chance of measurable rain over the ridges to a 20% chance
in PGH over a 6hr period on Saturday, with lower probabilities
on Sunday. Lesser probabilities are forecast north and west.
A broad ridge across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley looks
to bring a return of quiet weather heading into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect widespread IFR/LIFR in fog and stratus overnight with low
level moisture in place. Surface low pressure will track newd
across the Upper Ohio Valley region today, with another round of
showers and continued IFR conditions. Rain should gradually
taper off during the afternoon as the surface low tracks across
central PA/srn NY, with a gradual improvement to MVFR cigs
expected.
A brief period of VFR is possible late this afternoon and
evening, before IFR fog and stratus again develop tonight with
low level moisture in place.
.OUTLOOK....
Fog and stratus is likely Friday morning, before VFR returns
under building high pressure. Restrictions and showers are
possible, mainly S-E of PIT, Saturday and Sunday with a crossing
upper trough. VFR is expected Monday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion