Braggs, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

364
FXUS64 KTSA 231441
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
941 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected
    this morning for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
    Another round of severe weather is possible for the afternoon
    and evening hours.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for northeast Oklahoma, northwest
    Arkansas, and west-central Arkansas from 1 AM Tues until 7 AM
    Wed.
- Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above normal
    by early next week with dry conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The overall message in the forecast is on track today. Ongoing
storms across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas have been
largely below strong to severe limits, with highly localized heavy
rainfall in a few spots. Aditional shower and isolated
thunderstorm development persists farther to the southwest within
the low level jet axis that continues to shift slowly eastward
this morning. CAMs have had a decent handle on the evolution of
things so far this morning, with the exception of underdoing the
low level jet development in some cases. Early afternoon
thunderstorm development remains expected, first starting across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the low level jet
focuses in this area , with a gradual southwestward expansion
ahead of the cold front through the afternoon and evening. Large -
to locally, very large - hail remains the most favored severe
weather threat, along with damaging winds. Although a nonzero
tornado threat will extend southward to the Red River through
early evening, shear parameters favor far northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas for a locally higher, albeit still limited,
tornado threat mid to late afternoon.
In addition to the severe weather threats, an ongoing heavy rain
and flash flooding threat will persist. Precipitable water values
from 1.6 to 1.8 inches exist across most of the area, which are
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. We have already
seen one storm produce up to 3 inches of rainfall in an hour in
southern Carroll County. Rainfall rates of this magnitude are
likely to be localized but would be impactful especially in
urbanized areas. Will leave the Flood Watch as is for now but
adjustments may be made here in a couple of hours with the larger
forecast package.
The main adjustments to the going forecast this morning have been
to the POPs and thunder probabilities.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The weather for the next couple of hours will be mostly quiet, but
conditions will change quickly for the second half of the night.
CAMs are in good agreement that a line of strong storms will
approach the area from the west. With robust instability, deep
moisture, and sufficient wind shear, some storms are likely to
become severe. The primary threat will be strong damaging winds, but
isolated large hail and QLCS tornadoes may also develop. Most
guidance brings the worst of the weather just north of Tulsa, moving
east into Bartlesville and beyond. But models are not always
correct, so severe weather may extend south into the Tulsa area as
well. These strong to severe storms will move into northwest
Arkansas by mid morning, with scattered activity continuing further
to the west. Storms may weaken somewhat by this point with the loss
of the low level jet, but this outcome is not certain.
Most guidance shows a bit of a lull behind the initial line of
storms. Then, as the cold front approaches in the late morning or
afternoon storms reinvigorate along the front. There is some
question about how much recovery will occur given models continue
some scattered precipitation and cloud cover. With that said, upper
level flow will improve with good low level convergence, yielding
strong hodograph curvature. This is a good setup for supercell
development. Most guidance shows this happening either along the I-
44 corridor or further east, but this is highly dependent on how
quickly recovery can occur. If storm activity is more limited with
the first round, it may help with a quicker recovery for the
afternoon. With all of that said, storms will once again be capable
of strong winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Given recent rains, and the
additional 1-3" (locally up to 5") there will flood concerns. A
Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area today. Main stem river
flooding may also be a concern depending on where the heaviest
rainfall sets up. High temperatures will be warm, but temperatures
will cool quickly behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As the upper level low dips into the area Wednesday one final push
of rainfall is expected. The severe potential will be very low at
this point, with mostly weak thunderstorms. Clouds and precipitation
will keep temperatures down, went below NBM guidance for this period
north of I-40. Skies will clear into Thursday and remain mostly
clear for several days (with just a slight chance of a high terrain
shower in NW AR Thursday). North winds will bring cool and dry air
into the area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal norms, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
to low 60s.
High pressure will settle over head into the weekend and early next
week, with temperatures gradually moderating to near to slightly
above normal. Mostly clear conditions will continue with little to
no chance of rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Ongoing showers and storms across NE OK will continue eastward
with an expansion likely into far NW AR with periodic impacts at
terminals. The sustained low level jet axis will foster scattered
convection through the morning across NE OK into NW AR though
overall intensity should be only briefly impact flight conditions.
The stronger storms will develop by early to mid afternoon as the
cold front advances eastward and conditions destabilize along the
remnant outflow boundary. Strong to severe storms are likely to
impact NW AR through SE OK with NE OK likely to remain just west
of the strongest storms. Convection pushes southeastward through
the late evening w/ MVFR to IFR ceilings spreading southward
behind the front and in wake of the departing mid level wave.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  67  75  61 /  80  30  40  10
FSM   88  70  80  65 /  70  80  40  10
MLC   91  67  79  60 /  60  70  20  10
BVO   81  62  73  56 /  90  20  40  10
FYV   82  65  76  58 /  90  80  60  20
BYV   78  65  74  60 /  80  80  60  30
MKO   86  66  77  60 /  60  60  30  10
MIO   77  65  73  58 / 100  50  60  10
F10   89  64  77  58 /  50  50  20  10
HHW   91  68  80  62 /  10  70  20  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ054>072-074-076.
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion