Braintree, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS61 KBTV 220614
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
214 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
South winds will bring warmer conditions back to the region
through mid week. Chances for rain will arrive today and
tomorrow as a train of weak systems pass through the region.
Dry air will return for the midweek. Another round of
precipitation will be possible on Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will remain above average generally in the 70s
during the day with mid 40s to mid 50s at night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...A weak area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms is continuing to move to the northeast out of
western Lake Ontario and eastern Ontario. These showers should
weaken and dissipate over the next few hours as they move east,
but a stray shower in the early morning hours in the St.
Lawrence Valley cannot be ruled out. A weakening cold front,
associated with an overarching upper low to the northwest, will
begin to enter the area this morning across northern New York
with increasing chances of scattered showers. Associated with
the approaching boundary, southerly winds will continue to be
breezy across the area with higher gusts in the Champlain
Valley. Winds in the CPV could continue to see gusts up to 25
mph, and occasionally 30 mph in the immediate vicinity of the
lake. By sunset this evening, winds should gradually abate with
the onset of more widespread rainfall. Temperatures today will
be on the mild side, a few degrees above average, in the mid to
upper 70s and overnight lows tonight in the upper 50s to low
60s.
PoPs continue to trend up with the NBM an CAMs, showing that a
good amount of locations across northern New York could see a
few hundreths of an inch of rain today into this evening. The
first cold front decays and washes out by this afternoon with
another digging trough sweeping towards the region tonight.
Better chances for precipitation areawide look to be tonight
into tomorrow as high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic funnels
moist air into the region along a narrow corridor ahead of the
trough. While thunder chances will be low to zero with the
initial round of showers, elevated instability, up to 500 J/kg
from daytime heating, looks to be associated with the second
boundary as current observations show thunderstorm activity
across Missouri and Illinois. It remains to be seen how much of
this instability remains as it approaches the region tonight,
but isolated embedded rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.
Better instability amounts should remain to our south across
portions of southern New England. Rain chances expand to central
and northern Vermont tonight as the boundary slides eastward
and showers move southwest to northeast. Mostly scattered to
perhaps scattered numerous showers are likely with
precipitation amounts through Tuesday between 0.4 to 0.75
inches, with locally higher amounts across the northern
Adirondacks and central Greens. The combination of a favorable
moisture axis with dewpoints in the 60s, and the position of a
250mb jet streak do lead to higher confidence in areawide
rainfall, however, forcing should keep rainfall rates low
putting precipitation amounts on the lower side. It`s not really
going to put a dent in anything, but it should at least slow the
deepening drought conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...The moisture axis slides to the east
Tuesday night with shower activity translating south and east
into southern Vermont and New Hampshire. Dewpoints will remain
on the higher side in the upper 50s to near 60s as the boundary
more or less stalls to our south and east. Lingering moisture
as the upper low pivots to the south and east Wednesday morning
could keep some light showers and mist in portions of Vermont,
particularly in the southeastern portions of the area. However,
there still exists a wide array of model solutions on the
evolution of this system so it is difficult to pinpoint whether
Wednesday could be wet or dry for most of Vermont. The southward
jog of the system will also keep southerly flow in the area
keeping temperatures fairly mild with highs in the low to mid
70s. Winds Wednesday late afternoon will shift to more
north/northeasterly which should start to draw in some drier air
as brief ridging try to develop towards Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...The long term portion of the forecast will
start out pretty active with several chances for showers, then trend
drier over the weekend and into early next week. For Wednesday night
through Thursday night a low pressure system over the Ohio river
valley will lift northeastward towards our region and spread
precipitation out ahead of it along a warm front then continues with
cold frontal passage. By Friday night and into the weekend a large
ridge of surface high pressure will build into the region. Even with
several rounds of precipitation towards the end of the week,
precipitation amounts should remain pretty light.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Expecting mainly VFR conditions to
prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Have
included a tempo group for some BR at MPV from 09-12z this
morning because winds have remained pretty light overnight thus
far. Sustained southerly winds will be mainly 5-9 kt overnight,
then increase to 8-13 kt after sunrise. The exception will be
BTV where gusts to 20 kt will remain possible through the
overnight. Ceilings will be high-based, with perhaps some
scattered lower clouds in the 5-8 kft range. Would expect dry
low level air in place and breezes will inhibit much of the
lower cloud cover. While showers will move into the airspace
after 18Z, they are expected to be scattered and mainly move
through northern New York through the period. While there could
be visibility reductions to MVFR, they should be brief with most
showers on the light side. For now have utilized VCSH to show
when showers will move in to each terminal.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to be exceed Lake Wind Advisory criteria across
the northern and broad waters of Lake Champlain, with
Colchester Reef reporting sustained winds of 25 knots with
occasional gusts up to 30 knots. These winds will likely
continue through this morning and early afternoon, but abate by
late afternoon. Other sections of Lake Champlain will likely
remain around 15 to 20 knots. Waves are expected to climb to 2
to 4 feet, locally up to 5 feet across the broad waters of Lake
Champlain. Winds and waves should weaken below Lake Wind
Advisory criteria by Monday afternoon.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...NWS BTV

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion