082 FXUS63 KDTX 270742 AFDDTXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will persist through the upcoming week as high pressure dominates the region.
- Temperatures will remain above normal in the low 80s to close out the month with more seasonal temperatures around 70 expected mid week.
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.DISCUSSION...
A surface front has stalled over the Great Lakes overnight extending from southern Lake Huron through southern Lake Michigan before it curls back up to the north to connect to a deep, occluded surface low tracking across northern Manitoba and Ontario today. This low will draw the front back northward early in the day as a warm front with weak high pressure then building up through the area with light southwesterly flow in the warm sector to help boost temps today. Still should be enough with plenty of late September sun to get SE MI back into the low 80s. The fast moving system tied to the 130+ knot jet over Canada will then quickly pull the cold front through the region late tonight into early Sunday morning. With ridging aloft and the right exit region of the upper level jet passing over, with warm mid levels producing a cap...expect the front to pass through the area dry with only a boost in cloud cover owning to some low level convergence and steep low level lapse rates to utilize the little moisture present.
Another area of high pressure builds in on Sunday from the west centering itself over the region by the late evening. Broad ridging aloft over the central Plains into the Great Lakes will continue to steer the jet well to the north through Canada. The strong flow and several shortwaves acts to keep the ridge fairly low amplitude initially, but a digging trough over the West Coast will help amplify the ridge through the first half of the new week with the ridge axis expected to reach the Great Lakes late Wednesday. A weak backdoor cold front may drop through lower MI Tuesday, but will really only act to allow high pressure over Ontario to build south through the area flipping the surface winds around to the east on the south side of the ridge. This will dry the area out even more and knock temps down into the 70s, and possibly the 60s on Thursday, keeping the newest dry stretch going through the week. The upper level ridge continues to amplify through the end of the week which eventually causes it to fold over through the region. The warmer airmass under the ridge should slide in heading into the weekend allowing temps to slowly climb back into the mid 70s.
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.MARINE...
High pressure drifts out of the Plains and over the region this weekend maintaining lighter winds (
NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion