272 FXUS63 KIWX 121009 AFDIWXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 609 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with high in the low to mid 80s with light winds.
- Becoming hot early next week with highs in the lower 90s.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A large surface high pressure area was over Quebec province. This system was helping to keep a light east flow over the forecast area. Patchy ground fog is likely to develop before daybreak as strong radiational cooling continues early this morning. The fog may become locally dense, but is not expected to become widespread. Any lower visibilities will improve by mid to late morning. Drought/dry ground conditions will play a role in allowing temperatures to rise above normal this afternoon. Highs should reach the mid 80s this afternoon south of Highway 30.
An upper level ridge will build east and become prominent over the region early next week. Upper level heights will exceed 5900 meters across the Upper Great Lakes region. As a result, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs mainly in the 80s. However, highs in the lower to the mid 90s, especially south of Highway 30 are becoming more likely given the antecedently dry condition. These initial drought conditions will exacerbate the developing drought. The updated Drought Monitor shows D0 and D1 had expanded over the forecast area. These "Abnormally Dry" to "Moderate Drought" conditions are very likely to expand through the first half of next week.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 605 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
No significant changes to the TAFs with this update. A few mid- level clouds are noted upstream over Illinois, tracking southeast. Cloud bases have been updated accordingly. High pressure will continue to provide tranquil weather conditions.
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.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.
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DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Brown
NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion