Buckeye, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS64 KLCH 171123
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moist airmass coming off the Gulf will combine with upper low
  eclipsing the southeast US to bring about the chance for
  isolated to scattered afternoon showers again today.
- Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the
  forecast period. This is still above normal temps by 2 to 3F.
- Moisture increases substantially into the late weekend, however,
  rain chances likely don`t return until the start of next work
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Both surface and upper level analysis show very little change from
this time last night, as weak high pressure lingers at the surface
and we remain on the western periphery of a large upper low/trough
aloft.
Today through Friday, surface high pressure will linger around the
SErn US for a bit longer, keeping a light and variable flow in place
at the surface that will eventually transition back to a mainly
onshore flow by Friday into the weekend. Aloft, the upper low over
the Eastern Seaboard will slowly broaden out today, before
eventually transitioning to an open trough and lifting northeastward
Thurs through Fri as it becomes encaptured by a more robust trough
over Canada. This will result in one more day of isolated/scattered
showers today, as moisture rotates broadly around the upper low and
brings some precip into the forecast area from the north/northeast.
Like yesterday, a lot of areas likely won`t see any convection, but
some of us should get lucky enough to see measurable rainfall this
afternoon. Thurs and Fri, rain chances decrease back to near zero as
upper level support/moisture wanes. Temperature wise, highs will
continue to top out in the low to mid 90s each afternoon, while
overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
As we move into the weekend and beyond, guidance continues to
diverge, with no real run-to-run agreement. As of now, it looks
like we may see a weak ridge develop across Mexico into the SWrn
US by the start of the weekend, resulting in a W/NW flow aloft
overhead. This should extend the period of dry weather through the
weekend, which NBM is in agreement with. Sunday into Monday, weak
troughing then looks to develop across the southeastern
US/northern Gulf Coast region, where it will remain through the
end of the forecast period. This will bring moderate rain chances
back to the forecast Monday and Tuesday, with NBM painting ~20-40
POPs across the forecast area through this period. Of course, with
little model agreement things could change through the next few
days as we draw closer to the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Other than areas of patchy fog, VFR conditions ongoing this
morning. Low chances of showers and storms are once again possible
this afternoon, hence carrying VCTS at all sites. Convection will
wane after sunset, with the possibility of light patchy fog
overnight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds and low seas around
1-3 feet are expected today through the weekend. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible each day tomorrow
through the weekend, with rain chances increasing further early
next week. Winds and seas will be higher in/near convection.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible
again today as weakness develops aloft within a semi moist
airmass. Min RH values are expected to be in the 45 to 60 percent
range this afternoon. Slightly drier air works its way into the
area tomorrow and Friday, dropping daytime minimum RH values to
around 35 to 50 percent. Rain chances remain low to near zero
tomorrow through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  68  93  67 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  92  72  91  70 /  30  10  10   0
LFT  90  70  91  69 /  30  10  10   0
BPT  92  72  90  71 /  20  20  20   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion