Cabot, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

969
FXUS64 KLZK 181124
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
-Some strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
afternoon/evening...with the best chances over NW sections of the
area. Damaging winds...large hail...and locally heavy rainfall
possible with strongest activity
-Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue nearly every day
into the middle of next week, with the best chances for seeing more
scattered/numerous showers/storms on Fri
-Hot/humid conditions will continue today...then somewhat cooler
conditions are expected late this week into the middle of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Looking for a near repeat in the forecast this Thu compared to what
was observed on Wed...with highs in the 80s and 90s...and continued
chances for afternoon convection. However...do think the coverage of
convection...especially over WRN sections...will be a bit better.
Expect more numerous SHRA/TSRA for WRN sections...which will be
result of an upper shortwave approaching from the west. While
widespread SVR Wx is not expected...a few strong to SVR storms could
be seen this afternoon. This will be mainly across WRN/NWRN
sections...with the approach of the shortwave. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats with the strongest
storms...with locally heavy rain also possible.
By Fri...the aforementioned shortwave will move into the state from
the west...bringing better chances for more numerous convection on
Fri into Fri night for a larger portion of the state. Given this
upper shortwave will weaken as it approaches...will continue with
the potential for organized strong to SVR Wx to remain low on Fri.
Again...this doesn`t rule out any isolated strong/SVR convection
still being possible however.
Flow aloft will become more persistently NW by the weekend into
early next week. Additional upper waves will pass over the region in
this NW flow aloft...with some continued POPs forecast through the
end of the forecast. In fact...there are some indications a closed
upper low may move into the region by the middle of next week. This
will mostly likely keep temps cooler than in the past week...at
least a bit closer to normal for mid/late Sep. Details on best
precip chances will be a bit more uncertain however...given timing
differences of the upper low moving into the region...and what upper
waves may pass overhead and when.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected this morning with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening. Showers and TSRA have been kept out of TAFs due to
uncertainty with coverage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  67  89  64 /  20  20  40  10
Camden AR         95  67  90  64 /  20  20  40   0
Harrison AR       88  63  83  61 /  50  50  50  10
Hot Springs AR    94  67  89  64 /  30  30  50  10
Little Rock   AR  94  69  88  67 /  30  20  30  10
Monticello AR     96  69  93  66 /  20  20  30   0
Mount Ida AR      92  65  89  64 /  30  40  50  10
Mountain Home AR  93  64  88  62 /  30  40  40  10
Newport AR        96  68  91  65 /  20  10  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     96  68  90  65 /  20  20  30   0
Russellville AR   94  67  88  65 /  30  40  40  10
Searcy AR         95  67  90  64 /  20  20  30  10
Stuttgart AR      95  69  91  66 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion