Caddoa, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

855
FXUS65 KPUB 260906
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today will be the warmest day of the next several days, with isolated
  to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning to
  portions of the high country.
- Showers and thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain
  this weekend through Monday morning, with a focus along the
  Continental Divide and even moreso for the eastern San Juans
  on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Currently..
Mostly clear skies are present over the majority of the area, though
middle and high clouds can be seen moving in from our southwest on
satellite imagery early this morning. There is no precipitation
across the region, and winds are mainly light. Temperatures are in
the 40s and low 50s on the plains, with dewpoints in the 30s. Over
the San Luis Valley, temperatures have fallen into the low 40s as of
1 AM, though many locations are likely to dip to near freezing
briefly closer to sunrise.
Today and Tonight..
Near normal low temperatures are expected first thing this morning,
with most of us starting our Friday out in the 40s on the plains.
We`ll warm up quickly though, with most locations seeing highs
around 5 to 8 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year as
the upper ridge looks to flatten and drift east throughout the day
today. Slight increase in westerly flow and a strong less surface
trough will aid in heating, with highs climbing well into the upper
80s across much of the plains, with 70s more for mountain valleys
and 50s and 60s for higher terrain locations. Most areas look to
stay dry today, however we will see chances for isolated to widely
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
high country, especially for our San Juans. With low-level moisture
still largely lacking, today`s showers and storms will likely bring
more gusty winds than meaningful rainfall for most locations. All
areas are likely to see an increase in middle and upper-level cloud
cover throughout the day, which could actually help to hinder
today`s afternoon heating in some areas. The low over southern
California doesn`t move itself much throughout today or tonight with
the omega block in place, which will keep southwesterly to southerly
flow over our forecast area well into the overnight hours and
beyond. Overnight lows tonight look to be a few degrees warmer than
what we`re seeing early this morning thanks to slightly more mixing,
which will also likely end up being just a few degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Saturday...Upper low pressure system will remain centered over
southern CA through the day, continuing moisture advection up across
the Four Corners and into western CO. This will lead to
increasing convection chances across the higher terrain , with a
focus on the southwest mts. Plan on isolated showers and storms
developing across the eastern San Juans through late morning,
then becoming more scattered through the afternoon with isolated
activity then spreading to the remainder of the Continental
Divide, the Sangres and the san Luis Valley. SPC has painted an
area for General Thunder chances across all of the higher
terrain minus the Pikes Peak region. Look for high temps in the
70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.
Saturday night through Monday...The upper low system to our
southwest will begin to weaken, open up and gradually push to the
northeast starting Saturday night, pushing across AZ on Sunday then
up across CO on Monday. Precipitation chances increase Sat night,
then bump up significantly on Sunday for all of the higher terrain
with some activity possibly spilling over onto the I-25 Corridor.
Convection chances decrease for Monday as the open upper wave starts
to push northeast across the state, and by Mon evening activity
should come to an end. As for temps, Sunday and Monday will be
definitely cooler across the high valleys with increased cloud cover
and precip chances as the system passes overhead, but the eastern
plains are forecast to remain steady right around seasonal normals.
High will be in the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower
to mid 80s for the plains.
Tuesday through Thursday...Long range models agree on a quick-moving
upper wave glancing by to the north on Tue, just producing some
isolated convection across the higher terrain, but then start to
disagree on the upper pattern for Wed and Thu. The extended
procedure output keeps conditions mainly dry across the forecast
area, with just hints of some isolated showers for the mts into late
week, while keeping seasonal temps in place for all of the forecast
area.  Moore
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB,
and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Mid and upper-level clouds will be increasing
throughout the afternoon hours of Friday, with another decrease
likely towards the end of the TAF period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion