Calera, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

699
FXUS64 KBMX 030707
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
207 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 205 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- Dry conditions continue through Saturday as drought continues
   to worsen across Central Alabama.
- A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances
   Sunday through early next week, but chances of rainfall
   amounts exceeding 1 inch remain very low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
Dry conditions continue through the short term as ridging remains in
place. Winds were a little breezy during the day on Thursday
as wedge flow developed to our east. A similar setup is expected
once again today with gusts around 20mph likely at times from mid
morning through mid to late afternoon.
Latest GOES TPW imagery reveals a swath of much drier air spreading
across the region. With PWATs down near 0.5", temps will be a bit
"chilly" by daybreak this morning with lows dropping into the mid
50s to around 60. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid 80s by
this afternoon with lows back into the 50s for some by Saturday
morning.
95/Castillo
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
The pattern begins to shift as we head into the weekend. The upper
ridge will shift towards the east coast as a trough moves across the
Plains. Meanwhile, a mid-level low will linger along the northern
Gulf coast over the weekend. A weak surface low looks to track
across FL over the weekend and into the eastern Gulf. There is
some uncertainty as to whether or not this feature will remain
intact or wash out as it moves west. Regardless, a healthy plume
of moisture will spread inland, leading to increased rain chances
late this weekend into next week. Will continue with low to
moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms through the middle
of next week as ample moisture remains in place. By mid to late
week, an upper trough ejects across the Great Lakes region while
pushing a cold front our way.
Despite increased rain chances late this weekend and into next week,
most of us will remain dry. Dry conditions and warm temps with highs
in the mid 80s will likely result in worsening of our ongoing
moderate to extreme drought. The recent monthly drought outlook
doesn`t look good for us with additional drought development
likely.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Winds will pick up
through the morning as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area. Gusts from 15-20 knots are likely through mid afternoon. Winds
will become light again during the evening and overnight periods.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain-free conditions are expected until Sunday. RH values will drop
into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A moderate
risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today across
portions of the area, but min RHs and winds are forecast to be
just under Red Flag criteria. Regardless, outdoor burning remains
highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. 20-30% rain
chances return to the forecast Sunday through the middle of next
week, but no wetting rainfall is expected and amounts will be too
light to mitigate the worsening drought.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  56  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    81  59  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  82  61  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      81  62  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  84  63  83  67 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        81  62  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion