Caney, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

575
FXUS63 KJKL 052005
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
405 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A round or two of showers and thunderstorms will impact the
  area mainly this evening into the overnight.
- A few of the storms this evening into the early overnight may be
  strong to severe; damaging wind will be the primary threat, but
  large hail and a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out.
- Widespread rainfall totals from a half inch to an inch are
  possible through Saturday evening, but locally higher totals
  are possible wherever stronger convection occurs.
- Below normal temperatures and drier weather will return during
  the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
18Z sfc analysis shows a stalled cold front lying across the area
from northeast to southwest. Sunny skies out ahead of this
pushed temperatures into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon -
though upper 70s and lower 80s are found in the far southeast
where some morning showers had lingered. Meanwhile, dewpoints
have climbed into the upper 60s and lower 70s while winds are
generally from the southwest at around 10 mph with gusts up to 25
mph. Still waiting to see if any air mass thunderstorms can
develop from differential heating this afternoon ahead of the
main show later this evening.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are well aligned
with each other aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict very deep and large troughing over the
Great Lakes and points north. Amid this gyre a significant wave
will be rotating through its southern tier later this evening and
overnight. This sends 5h height falls south through Kentucky with
ample mid-level energy nearby - to the north of the Ohio River
through the night. Troughing will be the rule deeper into the
weekend when another push of mid level energy south toward the
Bluegrass State occurs later Saturday night into Sunday - though
the core of it will remain closer to the Lakes themselves. The
very small model spread through the period supports using the NBM
as the starting point for the forecast grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to tweak the PoPs by adding some
details and timing from the latest CAMs consensus guidance and
near term tweaking per radar trends. Did also include some terrain
enhancements for temperatures Saturday night away from the
Virginia border.
Sensible weather features a likely stormy evening and overnight as
a potent cold front settles through the area. The heating of the
day will likely drive CAPE values to near 2k J/kg by the time the
pre-frontal storms develop over our CWA this evening. Per the
wind fields there will remain a small chance for a tornado into
the night but the main threat will be damaging wind gusts as the
individual cells upscale and probably evolve to become more linear
with time. With PWs at seasonable highs any training could be
enough to overcome the initially dry ground for much of the area
outside of far southeast parts of the state into Saturday yielding
a potential for excessive rain. The front stalls over southeast
parts of the state for Saturday with additional shower and storm
chances developing for much of the area through the day, Saturday
- enhanced by lift generated by the nearby entrance region of a
3h jet streak. Look for a further retreat to the boundary to the
southeast Saturday night. There may be enough drier air and
clearing for northwest parts of eastern Kentucky to allow for
radiational cooling and some enhanced terrain distinction.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting the PoPs per the latest CAMs consensus and near term
radar trends. Temperatures were not changed much aside from some
extra terrain distinction applied to the northwest parts of the
area Saturday night with less cloud cover expected there.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A cool and dry air mass will be in place locally to start the
period, beneath a large scale upper trough over eastern North
America as surface high pressure moves southeast over the
Midwest. The upper trough will slowly advance eastward and retreat
north with time, while the surface high passes to our north and
moves off the northeast CONUS coast by midweek. However, the
surface high will continue to ridge southwest along the
Appalachians. The scenario will keep a dry air mass in place
locally, but allow for a gradual warming trend as geopotential
heights and temps aloft rise while low level cold air advection is
lost, resulting in insolation modifying our air mass.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
TAFs are VFR at issuance though expected to deteriorate into the
evening as a cold front brings increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances starting late this afternoon. This storm threat will
persist through the TAF window for most sites - likely sparing SYM
during the day on Saturday. Terminals will fall into a combination
of IFR to MVFR as the convection moves through. Winds will be
generally from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20
kts possible through the evening then settles somewhat tonight and
into Saturday. Additionally, the convection will bring gusty and
erratic winds - likely strongest this evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion