Canova, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

066
FXUS65 KABQ 170702
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
102 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor southern, central, and eastern parts
  of New Mexico through Friday.
- Scattered severe thunderstorms will develop across northeast New
  Mexico late this afternoon and into the evening. Large hail,
  damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will accompany.
- There will be a minor to moderate risk for burn scar flash
  flooding today, Thursday, and Friday, particularly over the
  Ruidoso area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
An upper low over WY will pivot into NE today with a trailing
shortwave trough dropping into WY behind its predecessor. This
will be complemented by a strong jet aloft that will dip down to
the NM-CO border, and at the surface a weak baroclinic zone will
sag southward with the boundary nudging into far northeastern NM
by late afternoon and the evening. Overall, forecast models are
more subdued with today`s deep moist convection and QPF with the
best moisture and highest PWATs staying entrenched over the
southern and eastern thirds of the state. The speed max aloft will
usher in drier air to the northwest plateau and San Juan basin of
NM with dewpoints continuing to drop. This will shut down storm
potential in the northwest with a gradient of increased moisture
stretching from west central NM to north central areas of the
state. Diurnal heating will quickly bring south aspects of
mountain ranges to their convective temperature by early afternoon
with storms initiating promptly, mainly south of I-40 with more
sparse activity over the Sangre de Cristos. This puts the northern
Sacramentos in a tricky meteorological spot, as cells are
expected to go up with ease around and just east of Ruidoso where
CAMs are pinpointing weak surface convergence. This would be
beneficial, as steering flow would carry cells farther eastward
and away from Ruidoso after initiation. That being said, there is
still high probability of at least a few tenths of an inch of
rainfall over the Sacramento burn scars with higher amounts
projected east off of the scars. For now, will hold off on a Flash
Flood Watch, but it will warrant close monitoring through the
early to mid afternoon.
In the far northeast, the aforementioned surface front will
trigger storms late this afternoon, mostly in Union county where
enough bulk shear will be present to introduce some rotation to
updrafts and extend their longevity with hail and damaging winds
accompanying. Farther to the south southwest, storms will attempt
to roll off of the central mountain chain into the eastern high
plains, but only a few are expected to survive into the early
evening.
On Thursday, the remnants of this evening`s front are projected to
make it toward the central mountain chain with upslope and faint
surface convergence aiding convective development by the
afternoon. By this time, the WY shortwave would have dropped into
the central plains with 45-50 kts of flow modeled at 300 mb,
keeping some speed and directional shear over and east of the
central mountain chain where a few more strong to severe storms
would be possible. Storms look to cover the Sacramentos Thursday,
but no CAMs indicate a direct hit over the Ruidoso burn scars
just yet. Otherwise, the southwestern mountains will be a focal
point for convective initiation Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
By Thursday night, the remnants of tropical storm Mario will be
moving northward to the CA coast while a preceding shortwave
perturbation moves in tandem inland to the Mogollon rim of AZ.
This will spread much deeper subtropical moisture to the lower CO
River basin and Sonoran desert with a more subdued increase
occurring in the southern half of NM through Friday. Meanwhile, a
weak ridge axis establishes itself over the central to southern
Rockies. This will reinvigorate convective potential over western
and central NM, particularly southwestern zones. Likely POPs have
been increasing and expanding over these southwestern mountain
zones, and this trend may continue with subsequent shifts as
confidence is rising in more expansive storm coverage.
Unfortunately, the boost in POPs will be temporary, as PWATs will
quickly start falling into Saturday as drier light westerly flow
prevails with the upper high over MX. Storms would still favor the
southwestern to west central mountains on Saturday, but the
coverage would be reduced to more of a scattered nature rather
than numerous cells like on Friday. Further drying will take place
into Sunday and early next week as the upper ridge begins to
amplify. Where the ridge axis sets up is debatable among
deterministic guidance with the ECMWF keeping it a bit tilted
farther east, but consensus among ensemble means sets it up west
of the Four Corners. This will open the door to northwesterly flow
for northeastern portions of NM Sunday and Sunday night, but
otherwise a mostly dry extended forecast will hold with
temperatures climbing slightly above average through the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Thunderstorm activity has dissipated and come to an end over
northern and central New Mexico with just a few weak showers
lingering. These will pose a few brief and erratic wind gusts to
isolated and localized areas while just dropping a few sprinkles
or light rain through the morning hours. A new crop of
thunderstorms will develop over the high terrain areas early
this afternoon, mainly south of I-40 with more sparse storms over
the Sangre de Cristos in northeast New Mexico. Storms will drift
east southeast, struggling to fill into portions of the Rio Grande
valley and adjacent high plains to the east of the central
mountain chain. A weak front will sag into northeast New Mexico
late in the afternoon, spawning new strong to severe storms
through the evening where large hail, damaging downburst winds,
and heavy downpours will accompany (mainly near KCAO). Most
storms will dwindle by midnight tonight, but a couple of stray
storms may survive beyond, mainly in the far northeastern plains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Northwestern NM will be plagued by a lack of storms and very low
afternoon humidity for the next couple of days (readings dropping
to 10-15%). Storm potential will grow farther south and east where
better moisture will reside, and an approaching weak front will
enhance potential in the far northeastern plains (mainly Union
county) late this afternoon into the evening. Storms on Friday
will multiply over the southwestern and west central mountains as
deeper subtropical moisture and a disturbance aloft make a brief
appearance. This will be the day with the highest prospects for
soaking rainfall over the western and central zones. Northwestern
areas could observe a stray storm or two on Friday, but the
coverage will drop off considerably near the Colorado border.
After good to excellent humidity recoveries Friday night, drier
air filters back into NM on Saturday with a notable reduction in
storms, but western and central high terrain areas should still
observe isolated to scattered coverage. Storm coverage reduces
more into Sunday and early next week with more drier air arriving.
Along with the bleak rainfall outlook, much of northern and
central NM will face minimum afternoon humidity of 15-25% Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  49  83  47 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  78  39  79  37 /  20   0   0   0
Cuba............................  82  47  79  46 /  20  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  45  82  45 /  20  10   0   0
El Morro........................  76  49  79  47 /  30  20   5   0
Grants..........................  83  48  82  47 /  30  20  10   0
Quemado.........................  73  50  79  51 /  50  20  10   5
Magdalena.......................  77  56  77  55 /  50  40  40  10
Datil...........................  73  49  76  50 /  60  40  30  10
Reserve.........................  83  50  84  51 /  60  40  40  10
Glenwood........................  89  55  86  56 /  60  50  50  20
Chama...........................  71  42  73  40 /  20   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  74  53  76  50 /  30  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  79  49  76  48 /  30  40  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  72  46  75  43 /  20  10   5   5
Red River.......................  62  39  66  36 /  30  10  10  10
Angel Fire......................  71  32  70  33 /  20  20  10  10
Taos............................  76  46  78  42 /  20  10   5   0
Mora............................  71  44  74  43 /  30  20  10   5
Espanola........................  81  51  82  48 /  20  20   5   0
Santa Fe........................  79  52  77  51 /  30  30   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  82  51  81  49 /  30  30   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  62  84  59 /  30  30  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  58  86  58 /  30  30   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  56  87  57 /  30  30   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  57  85  57 /  30  30   5   0
Belen...........................  85  55  86  56 /  30  30  10  10
Bernalillo......................  86  56  87  56 /  30  30   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  54  86  55 /  30  30  10   5
Corrales........................  87  56  87  56 /  30  30   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  54  86  56 /  30  30   5   5
Placitas........................  83  56  82  55 /  30  30   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  84  57  86  56 /  30  30   5   0
Socorro.........................  85  60  86  59 /  40  40  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  52  77  52 /  30  30  10   5
Tijeras.........................  81  55  82  53 /  30  30  10   5
Edgewood........................  79  50  82  49 /  30  30  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  45  81  49 /  30  30  10   5
Clines Corners..................  78  50  75  50 /  30  40  10  10
Mountainair.....................  78  53  79  52 /  40  30  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  77  51  78  52 /  40  40  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  81  57  79  58 /  40  40  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  74  52  71  53 /  50  30  70  20
Capulin.........................  77  47  74  46 /  20  40  30  60
Raton...........................  79  46  77  46 /  20  20  20  40
Springer........................  76  46  79  48 /  20  20  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  77  47  77  47 /  30  30  20  10
Clayton.........................  85  56  79  54 /  20  20  20  70
Roy.............................  77  52  79  50 /  20  40  20  40
Conchas.........................  84  58  86  56 /  20  40  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  80  56  81  54 /  30  40  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  84  57  83  55 /  20  20  20  40
Clovis..........................  85  61  84  59 /  20  10  20  20
Portales........................  84  61  85  60 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  82  59  84  58 /  20  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  89  61  86  62 /  10  10  30  10
Picacho.........................  83  56  81  56 /  30  20  60  20
Elk.............................  77  52  79  53 /  30  20  60  20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion