Cape Coral South, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

323
FXUS62 KTBW 270116
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
916 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The frontal boundary in the Panhandle region continues to shift
slowly eastward with widely scattered shower activity moving
across northern Florida and the eastern Gulf. This activity will
continue to move towards the Nature Coast overnight and Tampa Bay
area into Saturday morning but latest hi-res guidance has been a
bit slower than previous forecast so made some minor adjustments
to PoPs overnight into Saturday morning to reflect these recent
trends. Also added an area of patchy fog across northern portions
of the Nature Coast but given the expected increase in mid/high
level clouds overnight, confidence in overall development remains
low for now.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure has shifted eastward
between the Bahamas and Bermuda as an upper level low and deep
troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley. On the
surface, a frontal boundary extends southward through the
southeastern U.S. and into the northeast and central gulf. This
front will slowly makes its way eastward toward Florida later
tonight and into Saturday. Southwesterly flow will persist ahead of
this front today, which will push a majority of the afternoon
convection over the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.
Similar conditions expected on Saturday with scattered showers and
isolated storms possible starting in the morning and continuing
through the day. By Sunday morning, the front weakens and moves just
east of Florida. This will bring in shift in the winds to a more
northerly direction, bring in some drier air from the north and will
also lower the rain chances, with the highest chances over the east
coast of Florida and the interior.
Now on to the tropics. The National Hurricane Center is issuing
advisories on Hurricane Humberto northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane on Saturday as it
tracks west and then northwest. The latest advisory tracks the storm
between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. early next week, and
does not pose a threat to west central and southwest Florida. The
other area of concern is Invest 94L located near Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba. This Invest has a 90 percent chance of development as
it tracks to the north-northwest. There are still some differences
in the potential track as it moves northward, but all current
guidance keeps, what would be Imelda, to the east of Florida. Drier
air on the west side of this potential storm and high pressure
building in from the north will settle into west central and
southwest Florida producing pleasant weather next week with lower
rain chances.
Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period, with mid to
upper 80`s to low 90`s expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will
remain in the 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the evening and overnight
hours as winds will fall below 5 kts tonight mostly out of the
SSE. Scattered showers and isolated storms will then be possible
at times Saturday morning into the afternoon ahead of a cold front
approaching the area, which may result in brief periods of flight
restrictions at times with highest rain chances at northern
terminals. Any precipitation that develops should taper off by
Saturday evening with winds tomorrow shifting to the WNW by the
afternoon and evening hours at around 5-10 kts throughout the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A frontal boundary will approach the northern gulf waters today with
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
northern waters, spreading over the central waters tonight and
Saturday. High pressure will build back over the waters on Sunday
and into early next week with lower rain chances each day. Light
winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less expected over the
weekend. A slight increase in northerly winds to around 10-15 knots
and seas up to 3 feet expected for the early part of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No fire weather concerns expected through the weekend as relative
humidity values remain above critical levels and winds remain below
15 mph. Scattered showers and isolated storms possible each day
through the weekend, then lower rain chances expected next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  89  76  91 /  30  50  10  30
FMY  75  91  75  92 /  10  40  20  40
GIF  75  91  75  91 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  75  88  75  90 /  30  40  10  30
BKV  71  89  70  90 /  40  60  20  40
SPG  77  86  77  89 /  40  50  10  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion