Capitol, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

729
FXUS61 KAKQ 171045
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure lingers over the area today before moving
offshore by Thursday. A brief warmup is expected by late week
before a return to slightly below normal temperatures this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- The coastal low pressure lingers over the area today bringing
  additional chances for rain, primarily inland.
Early morning analysis shows the coastal low pressure is now
centered over the Chesapeake Bay progged to move further west today
before moving out of the area. As the low shifts further inland, the
chance of showers continues, primarily for the inland area north of
I-64 and west of I-95 this morning. While the heavy rain is over,
additional amounts up to 1.5" is possible. The low pressure will
weaken this morning with rain chances decreasing this afternoon as
only a few lingering showers are possible across the area.
Temperatures today will remain cool with highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s and lows in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Improving conditions as the coastal low moves offshore and
  high pressure returns to the area.
By Thursday morning, the low pressure will have moved offshore
allowing for improving conditions throughout the day. A few
lingering showers may be possible on the Eastern Shore in the
morning, but otherwise should be dry. Skies will clear from west to
east as the low moves offshore, which will allow temperatures to
warm back up with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight
lows on Thursday will be in the lower 60s. High pressure will return
to the area on Friday bringing clear skies and warmer temperatures
in the mid 80s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- A front drops southward across the region this weekend, bringing
comfortable temperatures and dry conditions.
- Moisture returns early next week as the front stalls south of the
area.
Strong high pressure over Quebec pushes a cold front south into the
region Saturday. This front is will bring cooler temperatures to the
area, but isn`t strong enough to provide additional showers/storms.
A gradient of high temperatures on Saturday is expected based on the
front but currently looks like the Eastern Shore will be coolest in
the mid 70s with the rest of the FA in the lower 80s. Overnight lows
will remain similar to previous nights in the lower 60s. Sunday will
be the coolest day with highs in the mid 70s. Slight chance of
showers returns early next week as high pressure ridges against the
Appalachia mountains and the surface front stalls near the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...
Degraded flight conditions continue as the coastal low pressure
system now sits over the east side of the forecast area. Seeing
mostly IFR conditions across the area with lowered CIGs as the
heaviest rainfall has concluded. SBY has recently become MVFR
with CIGs and the cloud decks will likely remain through the
majority of the day, but there may be some IFR this morning. As
the low shifts westward, RIC will likely be the main terminal
seeing additional showers. The coastal terminals seem to have
ended shower activity and will likely remain dry (or occasional
slight drizzle) through the period. Surface winds have decreased
some and will continue to decline throughout the day. CIGs will
then lower to LIFR at ORF/PHF/RIC tonight/tomorrow morning.
Outlook: The coastal low will continue to linger over the area
today, then moving offshore Thursday. As the low moves away from the
area, flight conditions should gradually improve Thursday with dry
and VFR conditions returning by Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Winds gradually decrease today. However, elevated seas continue
through this evening.
- Quieter marine conditions return by Thursday and Friday.
The low pressure system that significantly impacted the marine area
yesterday has tracked westward into eastern VA and continues to
weaken. The pressure gradient has relaxed significantly, and winds
are W-SW over the lower bay and southern coastal waters, and are
still E-SE over the northern half of the marine area. Wind speeds
are averaging 15-25 kt and all Gale Warnings have been replaced with
SCAs. Seas are still 7-8 ft N/5-6 ft S. The low is progged to
meander over eastern VA today as it continues to weaken, and wind
speeds are expected to diminish to 10-15 kt. The wind will continue
to be E-SE over the northern waters (north of the low) with
southwesterly winds expected over the southern waters. Seas subside
below SCA criteria late this aftn-this evening from south to north.
SCAs remain in effect through mid morning for the bay/Lower James,
and run until the late aftn/evening for the ocean. Winds become NW
at 10-15 kt (w/ gusts to 20 kt) over all of the waters by late
tonight/early Thu AM as the low finally exits to the NE.
A W-NW wind direction persists Thursday through early Friday, before
a light/variable wind pattern takes over Friday. Another period of
elevated NE winds are possible behind a backdoor cold front this
weekend and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed for
winds and seas.
Rip Currents: A High risk of rip currents is expected today, with a
moderate risk Thursday, and a low risk Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Expect water levels to drop off significantly today due to the
considerable decrease in winds/seas. Most sites will remain below
action stage, with nuisance flooding expected today and this evening
during high tide from Lewisetta to Windmill Pt/Tappahannock and also
on the bay side of the eastern shore (mainly in MD). Won`t issue any
headlines as Bishop`s Head/Bayford are the only sites that are
expected to crest right around minor flood thresholds with all other
sites at least a couple tenths below minor. No worse than nuisance
to low-end minor flooding is expected for the rest of the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJB/KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC/RHR
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion