Cardiff By The Sea, California Weather Forecast Discussion

410
FXUS66 KSGX 171605
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
905 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring increasing
moisture for today into Thursday with the greater chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, especially for the
mountains and deserts. There will be decreasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, mainly confined
to the mountains and deserts during the afternoon by Saturday
with warming and gradual drying for the weekend into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.Morning Update...
A plethora of clouds and rain showers are shown to our south and
offshore this morning as remnants from Mario move near the area.
As evident on satellite and this morning`s sounding, some
subsidence still remains in the mid levels where partial clearing
remains this morning. The moisture profile will moisten further
into the afternoon and evening as the system moves closer to the
region. Depending on higher level cloud cover this afternoon, we
may see some thunderstorms able to occur over the mountains, but
confidence on this is low. Some model solutions have hardly
anything for this afternoon and overnight while others have
higher level lighter showers. The best chance for the heaviest
showers and thunderstorms will be on Thursday morning into the
afternoon hours, especially in the mountains and deserts. Areas
closer to the coast have a lesser chance of seeing heavier rain,
but if it does fall, it would be sometime Thursday morning.
.Previous Discussion (346 AM PDT Wednesday)...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will spread
northward across the area through Thursday, then begin to decrease
on Friday. There will be increasing clouds today with the greater
chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, especially for
the mountains and deserts. The greater chance for showers and
thunderstorms for today is during the afternoon for the coastal
waters and for San Diego County. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will decrease for Thursday night and Friday.
High temperatures for the coast and valleys will cool 5 to 10
degrees for today with the greater cooling on Thursday for the
mountains and deserts. High temperatures on Thursday will be
around 4 to 8 degrees below average for inland areas with Thursday
high temperatures ranging from around 80 near the coast to the 80s
for the Inland Empire with the lower to mid 90s for the lower
deserts.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
There will be warming and gradual drying with chances of
thunderstorms on Saturday mainly during the afternoon for the
mountains and deserts. With the warming, high temperatures on
Monday will be generally a few to around 5 degrees above average,
ranging from around 80 near the coast to the 90s for the Inland
Empire with 100 to 105 for the lower deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...
171515Z...Increasing and thickening clouds today at around 10000
feet MSL and above. SCT -SHRA and ISO TSRA to move in from the south
into San Diego Co after 20Z, and continue moving northward with
gradually increasing SHRA/TSRA chances region-wide after 00Z through
Thursday morning. Rain at the surface initially likely to be light,
but heavier pockets that pass over any terminals could bring brief
periods of lowered visibility 2-5 SM and gusty, erratic winds. At
the same time, some cloud bases to lower to around 5000 feet MSL
tonight into early Thursday, intermittently obscuring some of the
higher terrain.
&&
.MARINE...The remnants of Mario will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms today through Friday morning, greatest chances
Thursday starting in the early morning. Any storm could briefly
produce lightning, gusty variable winds, and choppy seas. Otherwise,
no additional hazardous marine conditions are expected through
Sunday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...APR
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion