Carlin, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS65 KLKN 200950
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
250 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
* Drier air begins to slowly move in from the west on Saturday,
  pushing moisture further into parts of central and northeastern
  Nevada. Chance for showers up to 30-50% with greater chances of
  White Pine and Elko County. Thunderstorm chances up to 30-35%.
* On Sunday, lingering moisture remains across Eastern Nevada and
  parts of Central Nevada in the morning with a 30-40% chance of
  showers. Thunderstorm chances up to 25-30% in Central and
  Northeastern Nevada. Look for partial clearing late afternoon.
* Mostly sunny Monday.
* Another low pressure system expected to move across the
  southwest bringing more moisture over Central Nevada Tuesday
  afternoon. Chance of rain up to 20%.
* Widespread moisture Wednesday through Thursday afternoon with
  chances of light showers up to 20% across Central and Northern
  Nevada.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Remains of Tropical Storm Mario will
bring chances of rain and thunderstorms today across Eastern
Nevada and parts of central Nevada near the US-50 corridor. Up to
20-30% chance for rain showers in Central Nevada, 30-40% in White
Pine County, and 40-60% in Elko County. Little instability
associated with this weather system, however chances of
thunderstorms remain up to 15-35% with the higher chances in Elko
County. Storms expected to weaken overnight, then return Sunday
afternoon as the system slows down from upper ridging over the
rockies. 25-35% chance for rain showers across central and
northeastern Nevada (Humboldt county expected to be dry). The
system will slowly push eastward by the evening, keeping chances
of rain showers over the eastern state border, clearing out
overnight. Monday, upper ridging moves back over Nevada, leaving
clearer skies and a brief lull in weather. Models showing an off-
cut-low forming over southern California, pushing up more moisture
from the Gulf of California. By Tuesday evening, increasing
confidence that the low pressure system will push northward,
weakening the upper ridge and bring in more moisture into southern
Nevada, extending into N. Nye County. There is discrepancies in
the models on chances for rain Tuesday night and into Wednesday
with some models showing drier air still over Nevada with PWAT
values below 0.25 in, while GFS showing more extreme amount above
0.6 inches. The models however are showing greater confidence on
the position of the system, moving over southern Nevada Tuesday
evening through Thursday evening. Chances for showers each day
remain at or below 20% at this time, clearing out by Thursday
evening. By late week and into the weekend, the low pressure is
expected to push over the Four Corners area, leaving a more
southwesterly flow over Nevada along with drier air. High
temperatures remain relatively consistent each day with highs in
the 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows in the 40s until Monday night,
with many valley areas expected to see cooler lows into the upper
30s. Winds will be generally light each with with some breezy
afternoon winds up to 10 mph, however greater wind speeds from
passing storms are possible.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to grids at this
time. Increasing confidence of the low pressure system from
Tropical Storm Mario, slowing down over Nevada today and Sunday.
Greater confidence of the next low pressure system moving back
over Nevada by mid-week, however low confidence on amount of
moisture is present from this next system.
&&
.AVIATION...
Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity into
Saturday is forecast for KTPH until early morning. On Saturday
shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated at all terminals
between midday and Saturday evening. Intermittent MVFR and IFR
conditions are possible in and around shower and thunderstorm
activity. Afternoon southwesterly winds will gust to near 20KTs at
KELY Saturday before diminishing early Saturday evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Lingering showers and thunderstorm activity today across central
and northeast Nevada, with chances for wetting rains up to 25-45%
across zones 424, 425, 427, 438, 469, and 470. Zone 426 expected
to see drier air with chances of wetting rain below 20% as well as
zone 437 except for the most eastern part. Thunderstorm activity
is possible, however chances for thunder is expected to remain low
or dissipate as mid-level moisture dries out, stunting
thunderstorm growth. Chances do remain with up to 15% chance of
thunderstorms across the central zones. More mid-level moisture
will be present across northeast Nevada in northern part of zones
438, 468, and much of 470 extending into northern part of zone 425
with a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms. Winds are expected to be
generally light below 10 mph, however some gusty erratic winds
from passing storms are possible. Min RH across all zones above
critical thresholds (above 20%).
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...97

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion