Cave Rock, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

273
FXUS65 KREV 110756
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1256 AM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread showers with a few t-storms expected today.
* Drier conditions Friday and Saturday with more isolated shower
  activity. Another system brings showers back to many areas
  Sunday.
* Below normal temperatures through Saturday with freezes and
  possible morning fog in Sierra valleys. Gradually warming
  temperatures next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Widespread afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances continue
today, albeit lesser (25-45%). They`ll develop along the Sierra
as early as noon before progressing northeast. With the cooler
temperatures again today, the threat for small hail continues,
especially in the higher terrain. Similarly to yesterday, we could
see showers persist after sunset and into the early evening
hours.
As previously mentioned, afternoon highs remain on the "chillier"
side into this weekend with temperatures 10-15 degrees below
normal. Although, a warming trend initiates today, with highs
reaching the mid 80s for W NV valleys and the mid 70s for Sierra
communities by Saturday. Stereotypical colder Sierra valleys will
flirt with freezing temperatures again overnight tonight.
Clearing skies this early morning will allow for fog to develop in
fog-prone Sierra valleys (primarily the Martis valley), bringing
possible visibility reductions through daybreak.
Smoke will continue to be a risk this week for Mono and Mineral
counties as the Garnet Fire continues in the southern Sierra.
However, the amount of smoke infiltration, and therefore the
possibility for visibility reductions, highly depends on the fire
activity. The latest HRRR smoke guidance has dwindled for today,
with the best chances for lingering smoke in the early morning
hours.
Afternoon shower chances continue Friday, but will be primarily
isolated to the Sierra (the Tahoe Basin and southward). A
shortwave trough off the coast of California originally brought
additional shower chances Sunday. Recent model guidance pushes the
low more to our north, shifting shower chances to along the OR
border very early Sunday morning and through the afternoon hours.
We heat up and dry out Monday and beyond as ridging sets back up
over the area.
-Giralte
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern through the
afternoon for all terminals, but best chances (25-45%) exist at
KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. The best timeframe will be between
11/20Z through 12/00Z. Thunderstorm activity is expected to end
between 12/03Z and 12/04Z, but light to moderate showers may
linger overnight. Impacts will include brief, heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, lightning, and small hail.
There is a 20% chance for FG/FZFG to develop at KTRK this morning,
bringing periods of IFR conditions through 15Z. As of this
writing, BR has already started to develop. Smoke from the Garnet
Fire is not expected to impact visibilities at KMMH today, per
latest HRRR smoke guidance.
-Giralte/Salas
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion